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VRX update

Hamilton

vrx may 11 2016

See our earlier blog. We were expecting at least another 4-5 before this party would be over. We are getting that. A little further – watch the RSI – and this stock might be reaching a major low. It should reach  below $32.35 to make a new low.  Our guess is that with Papa running the place and Ackman on the board a little revival should be in the cards soon. Where exactly we do not know but it should be something like $30 or so. The MACD is already not responding to the latest drops in the stock.

MFI, Maple Leaf Foods

Hamilton

Somehow we have always managed to keep Maple Leaf Foods out of this blog. No idea why as it is a true Canadian Company in a very real business. So here is it’s belated debut.

mfi may 2016 bmfi may 5 2016 s

As always click on the chart to make it bigger.

Today the stock shot up a little because the company beat analyst expectations, which means essentially nothing other than that the stock will enjoy the spotlight a few minutes longer. We would sell this stock. The reasons are very simple. The stock has more or less quadrupled in value over the past eight years and probable did so in what could be a clean 5-wave sequence. In the process it has broken the channel (if there is one) and is now at or on another line connecting tops over some twenty years. The last leg is also a nice 5-wave sequence and every other indicator is looking not so hot. RSI, MACD and even volume is deteriorating fast. Time to sell.

ABX update

Hamilton

abx may 3 2016

Please see our previous blog of two to three weeks ago. We recommended selling at about $22. which I am sure nobody has done. It is always good to leave a bit on the tble for the next guy/gal.

We have done 5 waves up, reached the top of the diagonal and both the RSI and MACD are  deteriorating rapidly. Furthermore you have almost tripled your money. A solid pull back should lie ahead, perhaps about $8 or half of the gain. It should unfold in an a-b-c after which the C leg could add an equal amount again and take the stock to about $32. We will see.

GOLD , update

Hamilton

gold april 29 2016 bgold april 29 2016 s

Gold is doing more or less as expected. However we would have expected a deeper decline around this level before the  second part of this correction. See also ABX. It is not happening which can maybe be explained by market participants who go from hating the stuff to thinking it is the best thing since sliced bread. Perhaps we are going to go straight to our target of $1450 to $1550. Considering that the price of gold really has not changed much for almost 3 months, we assume that this is a triangle B –wave which may or may not be complete. If this were indeed to happen than the correction could be complete by August or September. It seems like an awfully short period relative to the 4 years it took to complete the first down leg, therefore it is possible that this countertrend correction will become more complex and that this will only be a wave A of either another triangle or a flat.

In any event, for the immediate future things look pretty rosy.