BA, Boeing update

BA  jan 2 2018

At the time of Trump’s inauguration this stock was somewhere around $150 so it has rallied  about 200 points since then. Is this fear of missing out, FOMA in short, or is this a real Trump rally. You may recall that Trump at first trashed the company for overcharging a few billion dollars for the building of the soon to come new Air Force Ones, the presidents mode of transportation. Then he had a great campaign-like gathering at one of the Boeing hangars, a hughly successful event. Next Boeing files a complaint against Bombardier alleging unfair trade practices and the import tariffs are set to increase by 300%, also the company comes to an agreement for a joint venture,  an effective take-over, of the one competitor to Bombardier, Embraer of Brazil. Now Canada’s acquisition of new Hornets is possible in danger. Overall the company’s involvement in defense activities is enormous boosting its prospects given Trump’s love for all things in uniform.

    Whatever the case, and despite our incorrect call for a peak around $250, we still think you should be out. This is complete madness. The stock was good for almost 1000 Dow points as it goes straight up. Keep in mind also that building planes is hard to account for. Everything is predicated on the “normative” number of planes that they expect to build. This is pure guesswork right from the start.

GE

ge jan 31 2018

GE should be a buy here, give or take a dollar. This is a wave 2. Below is an old chart – from Dec. 3 ,2016,  showing the “big” picture. The red you are here arrow obviously does not apply any longer. The count, on the other hand remains appropriate.

ge dec 3 2016 2

Just in case you forgot, Jack Welch’s retirement package back in 2001 was reportedly $417 mln, Inmelt only got about half as much and was never considered a “guru” as was Jack, together with his wife.

Dow Jones update

indu jan 24 2018

Here is the Dow once again. I do not pretend to understand what is going on in this market. Every day we seem to go up 50 to 100 points without a lot of interruptions. Things are good as we had already done away with real interest rates and now we seem to have done away with 1/2 of taxation. Also many regulations are being rescinded and most importantly capital investments may be written off in their entirety in the first year. Add to that some import tariffs and we are in an economic paradise! Really? And all this courtesy Trump?

We have no idea how the universal experiment over the past 20 odd years for about 20 trillion of low interest will end once things are reversed. Also if it is true that taxes are the cost of civilization than , perhaps, it is also true that low levels of taxation spell the end of civilization. Putting those and other considerations aside and just looking at this chart, and despite not being able to put a clear EW count to it, it remains self evident that a chart cannot go any further than straight up. Essentially we are at that point! On top of that the technical indicators, pretty well all of them are signalling some extreme. Time to short?

ECA update

The then – a year and more ago – and now picture as usual.

eca nov 1 2015eca 01 12 2018

or, in the big picture;

 

eca feb 21 2016

OK, the low point at $7.53 was exceded by a little bit but keep in mind that these charts are built on monthly lows which are not necessarily the intra day absolute lows. Even so you would be up more than 100% had you bought at that level. Of course had you bought at the suggested low of $5 you would be up a lot more. If this was a diagonal we should continue to above $30 or at least $25 where we have two equal legs up.

I understand that Desjardin came out with a buy today.