The then, 17 April 2017, and now charts;

It is worth reading the whole blog, particularly the longer term chart. Had you followed this advice you would have doubled your money over the past 2 years. We are not yet at the wave e level as suggested at that time, about $5, but nevertheless we would exit the trade on the next uptick given our overall negative outlook.

This could be the third 1-2, all of different degrees.

I checked the data with stockcharts and apparently the high point was actually at 25449, higher by six points than I have. That would add 4.5 points to today’s peak, if that is what it is, and would bring it to 25376, exactly where it went using the 75% retracement parameter for a third time!

Sorry, apparently forgot to post this!

For the past 9 years or so, anytime you have a bullish or more bullish scenario and a less bullish scenario you always seem to have to chose for the more bullish one. The whole world wants the markets to go up. Having said that, I think the call is still correct, it will just take a little longer.

We had a 1-2 and from there another 1-2 but of a different (smaller) degree. If both are to end up looking more or less similar, that is wave 2 should retrace roughly 75% of the wave 1 before it, this last wave 2 could go as high as 25,400 , then wave 3 should start. Notice that in this event the two 1-2s look alike. like fractals.

Some have suggested that we might be tracing out a triangle and that there is yet another leg up to go. If our assumption is correct, that is if the first leg down from the peak was indeed a 5-wave affaire then this cannot be a triangle in the making as ALL legs in a triangle must be 3s. Also the new high in the Nasdaq does not necessarily support the idea that all other indices need to follow. There are irregular patterns that allow for a B-wave to exceed the starting point of an A wave.

We will see.

So if our scenario is correct, we finished wave 1 of 3 of A a couple of days ago. This morning we have either completed wave 2 – a simple a-b-c – and should start dropping rapidly in wave 3 of 3, or this correction is going to become more complex (as shown), for instance by tracing out a double zig-zag for wave 2, just like the larger degree wave 2 ending on the 27th of Feb. The difference is between a 50% and 62% retracement. In any event we should know by tomorrow.

If this index manages to rise above 25500 or so this whole interpretation may be incorrect. But there could still be a bearish interpretation! This would be the case if, for instance , the low of March 2nd was just the end of the B wave and we are presently in C. Not very likely as there is little room to left to maneuver.