We may have been a little ahead of ourselves in our previous blog on the Dow. It appears that the index is tracing out a fairly decent triangle which would imply that the first wave of wave 3 down was not yet complete. If correct the Dow should drop any moment now to challenge the intraday lows of the past five months only to rebound back to the present levels. Then wave 3 of 3 should start.

Perhaps Trump will try to pull out of  NATO and join the Warsaw pact instead.

This is the count that should be preferred. I understand that even the gurus in Gainsville have come around to this view. Not sure that that adds confidence.

So we just completed wave 2 of 3 and are now entering wave 3 of 3. That is usually where things start moving a little more rapidly which is about time since we are not even at the lows set in February. After 3 of 3 we would still need 4of 3 and 5 of 3 just to complete this third wave. Then another 4 and 5 to complete wave 1. By that time we should be well under 20000.

This is Trump economics at its best. Economics 101 will teach you, as mentioned in this blog before, that if a country’s government runs a budget deficit (that is pay for things with money created out of thin air) then in an open economy the excess purchasing power has to be satisfied from offshore sources. This is the economic equivalent of the gravitational forces on water, which always flows downhill. Larry Kudlow is not there yet and, more surprisingly, nor is Peter Navarro. They were probable AWOL for this lecture. The recent tax-bill basically guarantees larger trade deficits.

If you are living in the States, you should buy your Mercedes, Audi, Rolls Royce now rather than waiting because these cars will cost so much more. This itself will trigger a J-curve effect which simple states that things almost certainly get worse before they might get better.

Costco is ready to turn and both Intel and Boeing are already down appreciable. This is just the start.