xiu

TSX update

Hamilton

On the 26 of August, about 2 months ago this was my expectation with regard to the TSX;

TSX 26 aug 2011

One of my better charts, I think, with the A-B-C B-wave loud and clear in this stylized format. That, as it happens also puts an initial low very near the 10700 level where 62% of the entire correction will itself be corrected. Notice that we did and are doing pretty well exactly as expected, except that wave 4 is sharper to the upside having already regained about 800 points in just a few days. It could have another two days of 300 points to get to 12200 or so for wave 4.Time will tell. In the meantime here are some updated charts of the TSX and the XIU (the same thing in a slightly different format);

tsx oct 6 2011 xiu oct 6 2011

Rather than two 1-2 to start , as in the top chart, I have used three, so the pattern becomes 1-2,1-2,1-2,3-4-5,4-5,4-5. using the first top which is actually higher by 4 and 1 point respectively. It is actually possible to add even a fourth 1-2. What speaks for the first top is that the entire drop so far is perfectly contained within a channel. It is possible that there is one too many 1-2 as well, but even then we need a fifth down to complete the entire thing. If we get to 12200 or a little under that it would be a fairly fast move of more than 1000 points. In all probability this would be wave A of a triangle (all waves 2 are zig-zags) so I would look for alternation. We will see.

XIU (TSE ETF) Jan 2010.

Hamilton

XIU Jan 2010

The XIU, a proxy for the TSE is dropping right on target, it is now at 16.50 on its way to , at least, 14.50 but first we probable need a little rebound as the TSE tends to do its business in increments of 1000 points.  In the mean time our favorite HXD has moved in tandem and at roughly twice the pace. Both have a comparable base value right now and as the XIU moved from about 17.50 to 16.50 or one point. the HXD went from just under 12 to almost 14, or two points. This pattern in the XIU calls for another 2 points down (as a minimum) so that should get the HXD to about 16. Ultimately I would look for much higher levels. (41+??)

XIU March2

Hamilton

XIU march 2

Many things can go wrong but so far the pattern has followed the script pretty well. We should hit a low (after 5 –waves down) in the next week or so. The minimum has almost already been reached at about 11, but it COULD still go lower to 10 or 9 1/2. Once there it is an almost certainty that we go back to at least 14; even 16 is within a 505 retracement and wave 4. This is a buy by any measure, the only question is how far you are willing to lower your bid without risking missing the boat. The HXU probable will not make it to 6, one may have to settle for 7 or so.