As anticipated this stock has now done it’s minor 5th wave. The only thing not clear is the degree. This may be it , then again it may not. Nevertheless this is definitely a buy at these levels as, either way, the stock should have a tradable rebound of about $3 before anything else. 42% of the float of this stock is presently held in short positions. A speculative buy for sure!

As suggested nine days ago, this one was probable missing a 5th wave. We now have most of it; all that is needed now is a very minor 5th of 5 to complete the C. See previous blog   This is the US $ version, there is also a Canadian one. This is a buy at just under US $9. There is however a small risk that that would only complete 3 of 5. The difference is slightly larger swings and a slightly lower low.

The usual then – July 6, 2012 – and now charts;

At the time we commented that – quote In fact C is already equal to A and could be considered complete were it not that it normally stops below the start of A, normally reaches at least the 4th wave of previous degree level and often reaches the lowest boundary line at about $15. It has done none of this. – unquote. It has now done all three things that it had not done then. The actual low was at $9.88 and it is presently trading within one single dollar of that level. The triangle shown then as a B with is incorrect as this whole thing is a C-wave and therefore must subdivide in 5 separate waves so the triangle must be a 4th wave in that sequence. For the moment it is not clear that the low established in July of last year is THE low. A very minor wave 5 of 5 of C may still be required but this should not take the stock much lower. It has achieved all that it should and has fallen about 93%. Shorts presently are about 38% of the total float which is unheard of. If we were to get the slightest bit of good news this thing will rocket up. A “speculative” buy in our opinion for this coal company. (see previous blog,perhaps with BTU). The stock also trades in Toronto under the same ticker.

The usual then (July) and now. I am not at all sure there actually was a bona fide triangle but in any event, it worked. The stock hit a low of about $32 the other day completing (?) a 5-wave sequence down. Normal rebound levels would be $70, $80 and even $90 as the top of the triangle.Of course the question is , can it go lower?

Yes it can, but by some measures it may have gone too far already. Worth discussing with your broker?