On July the 26, 2011 we opined that, given a little wedge that had formed, the stock should not trade much above $56/$57. It only got to about $55 and dropped immediately by about 30+% (now classified as wave 4, maybe). Then, unexpectedly to us, it goes right back up but again does not trade much above that target range and then only for a very brief moment. Presently it looks like a first wave down from the top ( May 2012) was formed followed by a wave 2 which is hitting its head against the lower channel boundary. Wave 3 should be next. The target should be around $20 or so when all is said and done.

P.S. When you predict, do it often. So the stock shot up on the 2.6 bln purchase just made, the 15th so far over the past year or so. One thing one should keep is mind is that this company excels in not paying for these acquisitions, that is much of the cost is booked to “goodwill” which is one of these accounting fantasies that allow you, over time. sometimes a long time, to gradually take these costs through your P&L by amortizing the goodwill. VRX has a total of about $14 bln is assets, about $11 bln of that is goodwill. I do not remember ever seeing such a lopsided ratio anywhere other than in Alice in Wonderland.

We are not sure about this one, except that it was going down big time. 36% down does not seem to be enough for such a high-flyer. Looking for about $25 in the future. The count shown is highly questionable. The top could be at B and now we are doing an a-b-c down. c=a gets us to $25

On July the 16th it was our opinion that this stock would not exceed $55, it was only a few dollars away from that.  So far it is down $14 from the high of $54+, or about 26%.

To some this might come as a surprise, it shouldn’t. This invariable happens when stocks that were previously shunned and then become darlings go meteoric. Even more so when the largest house in Canada puts it in the top-pick / focus-list category. This ensures that 1400 brokers and quite a number of funds and the even larger number of copy-cat funds are loaded up on the stuff. Nothing needs to go wrong with the stock but at some point the air-pocket will be hit. This one is going lower.

This is one that keeps going and going, mostly sideways. Here are the old charts;

This wedge would allow for a top near $57, but this stock appears propelled by financial engineering and the love of our largest brokerage firm, even if it has exceeded even their (then) lofty targets. $55 seemed like a good top. Perhaps not;

For about 4 months this stock has done nothing. Except it has gone from one side of the channel to the other. Usually it does not pay to short a dull market. this would certainly be the case if this were a 4th wave triangle which targets a price of about $56/57, right on the target. Keep a tight stop on this one and if it does get to $55+, sell it. Both the RSI and MACD do not look very promising.

In EW terms the original chart may have had a 1-2 too many. Taking it out puts you in wave 4 of the entire sequence. If this is a triangle it has to be a wave 4.