The anticipated triangle actually happened, even if it is not particularly clean. We should see a new low over the next few days and that might complete wave 1 down of 3 of C. The rebound should be good for about 300 points depending on how low it actually goes. Why is anyone’s guess, perhaps more rumblings about QE3.

The anticipated triangle is still possible but not very plausible. Even so the direction may still be the correct one. A lot of noise in the markets very little is clear. India lowered it’s rates, Canada may raise them earlier than expected. GS earnings were good, then again they are a lot lower than they used to be. Mr Carney is going to Threadneedle Street and Spain borrowed another 1/2 trillion from the ECB but yesterday’s 4 bln. new issue went well. Obama is going so stop the bad oil speculators and natural gas keeps making new lows, but is hardly used for transportation this side of the pond.

Today was one of those day’s when most news was bad, which obviously is good, more QE’s etc.etc. As far as the TSX is concerned we are still in no man’s land. As long as we stay below 12250 this could still be a 4th wave, most likely a triangle. All that is needed now is some good news. Again this could turn out to be just 4 of 3.

Right now it is not clear what this was. The beginning of the big bear in which case we would be in a wave 3 of some degree that is not finished and then continue down. The alternative , and given the symmetry etc., quite a plausible one is that we completed an A-B-C correction and now we go back up. The thought alone tires me but that is the message for now. The C wave should be 5 waves which is certainly not clear, and in a “flat”, which is what this is, the a wave is usually an a-b-c itself, which it is not. So I would favour the bear case but only marginally.