TSX

TSX update.

Hamilton

tsx may 17 2012

Just a quick reminder of where we are in the big picture. Things happen on an incremental basis and what feels like perfectly normal may actually be totally absurd if you care to step back for a moment. It is true that at roughly 11000 the TSX has not moved for about 12 years. But it is also true that in the past 25 years the TSX has only been higher than it is today for less than perhaps 2 1/2 years, this while the world supposedly collapsed financially! It would appear to me that the realists that think that the index might drop to say 8000 should not have to prove their point  and that the burden of proof  should be put on the armies of pushers-of-stock that are, forever,  looking for higher levels.

TSX update

Hamilton

tsx may 8 2012TSX may 8 s 2012

Just a quick update. It is an educated guess more than anything else. Looking at the bigger picture the overlap that clearly occurred suggests that we started this (wave 3 of C ) with a series of 1-2’s. Today , with 250 points down at this time we could be in a 5th with of 3 , implying a rebound in the next few days. Overall there is still a long way down and consequently any early attempt at counting this thing is mostly academic.

ASX, Australia update

Hamilton

Nothing in North America seems to work all that well, the Australian index however is performing pretty much as expected. (see previous blog):

asx may 2012

This index has been remarkable consistent. In approximate terms it loses 50%, then regains 50%, loses 50% and regains 50%. It is presently right at a large trend-line and the next move is down 50% except that we are now about to enter wave 3 down and that should normally be the most forceful and longest . As a minimum one would expect it to at least equal wave 1, roughly 1000 points, 1600 is far more common and then there is still a 5th wave to go.

What is remarkable about this index is that is highly dependent on China, generally considered to be the growth engine of the World today. Secondly it is also an exporter of raw materials first and foremost. As a consequence one would think that this index should have some prognostic value with respect to Canada’s TSX. Here it is;

tsx may 2012

Notice that “essentially” the charts are very similar except that the Canadian index has relatively larger retracements and as a consequence has stayed closer to peak values. In all other respects they do seem to be listening to the same drummer and what is not yet evident in Canada is already painfully so in Australia. The question for us, living next to the US (bad economy)and them living next to China (good economy) should be, why are we doing better? or are we and is this just a unsustainable fluke. Could it be that we have better leaders, a more entrepreneurial people, a more competitive industry? Don’t think so.