Then and now;

It took a little while and on Aug. 31 we were a little early but here we are some $50 below the sell point and there is still a long way to go.

The usual then – 15th Aug, 2013 – and now charts;

On Aug. 30 the new Elliot Wave Financial Forecast came out and, reading it, I was surprised to see a chart of Tesla Motors in there. This chart is, more or less, duplicated on the right, except that mine spans a slightly longer timeframe, from Aug. ‘12 rather than Jan. ‘13. This allows me to add my own  “gap-in-the-middle” observation. Otherwise the chart is identical in most respects showing the parabolic rise of this stock. They believe the stock will fall soon and retrace the entire rise. Given how many stocks there are and given that TSLA is not mainstream by any stretch of the imagination, it is a huge coincidence that the ONLY individual stock that is mentioned in their publication is one that I discussed less than a fortnight earlier! This is the 4th time this has happened. They charge for their subscription, I do not and I am seriously considering starting to do so soon as it becomes a little annoying to pay for your own stuff in someone else’ publication. For the moment I will just flatter myself with the thought that great minds think alike. Tesla, by the way, is a sell.

This is by request. I mention that because normally I select stocks entirely on my own which then allows me to chose those stocks that I think I understand, so there is a bias there right from the start which , presumable, should lead to better predictions. “Per request” stocks obviously do not enjoy that bias, so you are warned.

Tesla makes cars. Due to our government’s misguided interventions in this industry there is now an unbelievable over-capacity that was not allowed to destruct itself in the Schumpeter mode. So fundamentally this is not an industry to like. which is not to say that there can be upstarts with exceptionally low marginal costs that can beat out the rest. Tesla may be one of those.  From an EW point the only part that is clear is the 3d wave. Before that there are a number of 1-2s and after that a number of 4-5s. So far the drop from $159 is not 5 waves but if it goes any lower it could become that. We expect that to happen and in any event believe that a move from $40 to $160 in five months is a gift that should be taken. The RSI and MACD are already ringing the sell bell. An initial target would be about $90.