TSE

TSE, March 26, 2010

Hamilton

Obviously not a triangle!

TSE March 26 2010 DJIA March 26 2010

The TSE did not follow the expected script, so the triangle is definitely out, also we have now retraced a respectable 50% on the TSE and are overlapping previous downlegs which could mean that the entire thing is over ending a very simple a-b-c down flat correction.However it is not entirely clear how this would fit the bigger picture. Looking at the DOW for comparison purposes this is not yet the case and a variety of bearish scenarios are still valid. One thing is clear and that is that the TSE is more volatile than even the DOW

   It might help to also look at the Canadian dollar (against the US). A few weeks ago everybody and their brother and uncle simple knew that the Can. $ would go up and could reach 1.10 or even 1.20 easily. The obvious part , at the time, was that it was a very crowded trade and therefore did not work, in fact the dollar lost 7+ cents in an equal number of days,  pretty well repeating what it had done a week or so earlier. Here is the chart.

Can Dollar , March 26, 2010

Notice that this too (for the moment) looks like a simple flat correction a-b-c with a 3-3-5 structure. Again it is a little difficult to fit this in the bigger picture!, so the situation is that we remain bearish but with a little more caution.

TSE update

Hamilton

TSE May 24 2010

Due to the holiday in Canada the chart skips a day so the anticipated 4th wave triangle is a little harder to discern. Anyway, for the moment it looks like today’s 250 or so point decline at the open , followed be an almost flat close for the day is wave c of the triangle, d and e still to follow. After that wave 5 should take the TSE to about 11000 or so and that MIGHT then conclude this specific leg. however it is not clear at all what the exact degree of this wave is , other than that it is not a bottom!

TSE update, so far so good

Hamilton

tse may 21 2 2010

We went right back to the upper trend-line, no big surprise after 1000 points. However, within wave 3 wave 2 was a zig-zag as was the wave 2 of the entire structure once complete so, no matter how you count it chances are pretty good that the zig-zag in todays trading is just a part of an incomplete pattern which, in all likely hood will ultimately take the shape of either a “flat”, or a “triangle”. Todays action would just be the a wave of an a-b-c or of an a-b-c-d-e (as shown). This triangle measures about 300 points which would imply that once this 3d leg is complete we will be just above 11000. Then another 4 and 5 to complete this wave that started at 12200. Then another 4 and 5 to complete wave 1 of C.

    The above count is very tentative. Very often a series of 1-2 waves starts an initial move and things just keep going, also the degree in the above analysis may be incorrect, but these are just minimum targets!, things can get a lot worse.

TSE May 21 2010, so where are we?

Hamilton

tse may 21 2010

It is always risky to be too precise with regard to making predictions using EW, nevertheless I will make a wild guess as to where we are.

I always expect the TSE to do a 1000 points, all though Canada is supposedly metric there are still too many vestiges of the old colonial days but, as far as the TSE goes the 1000 point mark seems to fascinate the market over and over again. So we did that at the open. However I would not expect much more than a feeble bounce which may or may not already have run its course. By my estimation we are probable in wave 4 of 3 of w 3 of Wave 3 of wave 1 of3 of C.

Given that Wave 1 of 1 of C was 600 points or so Wave 3 may well run 2.6X that which would be about 1600 points, then 4 and 5 still have to occur to finish wave 1 of C. C itself always has to be 5 waves so that can easily get you to lows that are (substantially) lower than the lows set at March 2008. 

An interesting article appeared in the  John Maulding letter written by Niel Jensen of Absolute returns.  In it he explains why the commodity game is a con job. It is copywrited so I cannot share it here but you can find it on the internet at info@arpllp.com  .  Combine that with a little stockpiling in China and you end with a pretty toxic brew.

Stay with the HXD.