The TSE is potentially showing a very scary 1-2, 1-2 situation. Given the overlaps not too many alternatives present themselves. We should go down a little further tomorrow and then come back into Monday to keep the spirits going, thereafter it COULD be all downhill for a while. After hearing that our “authorities” are more concerned about losing the potash cartel than the price at which Potash Corp. might be taken over, I would not be surprised to see a backlash  against an economy that prides itself on torpedoing free-enterprise wherever it shows up.

The TSE is just as confusing as all the others. Multiple possibilities exist, but if we simple follow the approach we had on the Dow Jones, we get the following;

As with the Dow and the DAX the TSE is loaded with overlaps, making it hard to come up with a confident count. The bearish count shown here assumes a wave 1 down (a diagonal type 2, a very rare beast that does allow overlap) followed by an A-B-C counter trend correction. Mathematically speaking the equivalent point on the TSE would be 11893, just 30 points away from where we were this morning. If nothing else this confirms that as with the Dow and the DAX the TSE is also at some critical point.

Other counts are possible. The most bearish would be the 1-2, (1)-(2) etc. situation where both wave 2s retraced an inordinate  percentage of the respective preceding down-legs. Another, less bearish count would have this whole thing as a diagonal type 2 structure, which I think is very unlikely.

On the bullish side, an argument could be made that a complete corrective move was finished at the early July low and that we are back in a bull market on our way to new highs.  This view makes more sense if one assumes that this correction started around Jan 7th and the chart above just shows the C wave of a larger A-B-C, itself a B wave in the much larger correction from the lows of May 2008 of about 7500. (as per below).

Very unlikely given the big picture!