CM and TSE jan 23

This is an art not a science so there is an element of judgement which can only be partially eliminated by doing it often.  As far as the TSE is concerned I will go with the triangle, typically you then hit a bottom right under he apex and 5 tends to equal 1 so roughly around 7000. The S&P works better without the triangle, just an a-b-c 4th wave, otherwise the conclusions stay about the same.

Looking again at the Canadian banks I have added Commerce to see how it compares to the Royal. The chart is , as usual, open to different interpretations but given a very clear triangle and a fairly clear 3d wave I assume that ether the bottom has been hit already (and we are in a b-wave) or we are one leg short and could still drop to say $38 (this can happen in either scenario). In any case we have done slightly more than 61.8% from the $105 high and given that the next major move is probable a (counter-trend???) rally of perhaps $15 plus the risk/reward equation supports the idea that around here to a few dollars lower might well be a good buy. Here are the charts.

Click to Enlarge
Click to Enlarge

TSE as of Jan. 18

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If only I had my own IT man here I could get this Java problem fixed,evenso for someone 4 years behind it is ok for the moment. The 2 identical charts are of the TSE. There are two possible counts, the one on the right with the triangle is more elegant ,so to speak, whereas the one on the left is EW slightly more kosher. In any case we try not to be perfectionistic in our approach, the purpose after all is to make money. Both counts point to an imminent drop of tradeable (and avoidable) size if you are in the market. About 2000 points down is a reasonable target from whatever the little e or 2 manages to eek out, and that is if wave 5 does not extend! S&P is, IMO at the same juncture. Why, no idea but as the saying goes, buy on rumour and sell on fact. The rumour ,ofcourse, is that Obama has devine powers and needs only wave his magic wand . Perhaps not true????????????????