At last this thing may be coming to an end.

Few times that I can remember has any market, bond, stock or whatever been so utterly un-volatile as the TSE. It is rotating around 8750 without any real resolution with respect to direction; soon it will have lasted 4 months, in fact by one measure it already has. These  tranquil episodes are consolidation ( continuation) phases and normally they are resolved in the  same direction as where they started, in this case down. Some might think that all this is base building and that therefore the next big move is up. Perhaps. From an EW point of view, given the overlap, it is possible but would still be counter-trend. Stick with the downside until proven wrong.

Just a little update.  The triangle. anticipated at least two months ago, is unfolding as expected, which does not guarantee that this will continue as there are alternatives. Anyway, so far so good and should this continue it is plain to see that “something” has to happen before we work ourselves entirely into the corner. There is very little room left. Assuming we are in the e of the a-b-c-d-e triangle sequence and knowing that each individual leg must itself be an a-b-c, my best guess here is that we are in the b of e, allowing one more little rise before the whole edifice starts crumbling. In terms of execution, it should be pointed out that the e-leg is notoriously capricious. Sometimes it goes all the way, in this case 9500. In other cases it stops dead at the line, 9000 more or less, and sometimes it barely registers at all. The next good trade is, and this may seem counter- intuitive, going long by way of the HXUs or some other high octane vehicle. The reason for this is that you only want to do the absolutely sure trades, and  this market is asymmetric in terms of risk/reward the long side is better . No matter how low this market will go, it will return to the apex of the triangle ( see BAC ) as a recent example). So there is a sure trade on the long side, your only risk is waiting too long and missing the boat alltogether.  Also it might not be a bad idea to unload a few long positions just in case.