TSE

S&P , DAX , Nikkei and TSE April 16

Hamilton

They are not all entirely comparable but they all carry the same message. We are at a very important juncture and for that reason it is prudent to step aside. Unlike most brokers I believe that there is a red light ,a green light and an amber (or yellow ) light. The biggest mistake made is that of inaction! The market has been very bullish, up 24% or so and in some individual cases a lot more so I think this could be the halfway point and we take away a good part of the gains. Time will tell but the pattern, a flat wave (4?) occurs in all markets and should be followed by a dive, perhaps to new lows but we will see how it unfolds if it does. The bull case could just continue but in light of the evidence this is an amber light. Here are the charts.

S&P April 16

DAX April 16

Nikkei April 16

TSE April 16

Remember, you can click on them to enlarge, also you can move them across your screen so you have two or more side by side.

TSE AORD April 7

Hamilton

One would intuitively expect diversification to work better over a greater distance, like from Canada to Australia. Not so in this example as language, common heritage, natural resource dependence and a few other factors conspire to make the two economies, at least their stock exchanges, operate in an almost identical fashion. Here are the charts of the TSE and the AORD.

TSE April 7

AORD April 7

Notice that the TSE, the top one, starts later and therefore misses a wave that the AORD does have; otherwise the two are more or less identical. Something is distorting these indexes to cause this difference, perhaps capital weights, total return , whatever is responsible. To avoid this we will use the EWC and EWA iShares instead. Here they are.

ewc april 7

ewa april 7

Both iShares are pretty well identical having lost about the same proportion and doing it in synch. Both also suggest a 5th wave is missing to take them to their logical targets! In the future we will avoid the TSE index and use the iShare instead.

NASDAQ and S&P Update. Is this possible? March 27. Sorry, website was down.

Hamilton

Nasdaq March 27

We have to be careful that we are truly at the end of a 5-wave move. There seems to be a lot of agreement on this and that concerns me. I think it is entirely plausible that we have NOT yet completed the sequence. There is a possibility that we only just completed wave 4 (or a of wave 4 if it is to develop as a triangle) The same applies to the S&P, see below.

S&P March 27

This is not a predicting but certainly worth thinking about before one loads up on the long side. Canada oddly enough does have a clear 5-wave down, but it started almost half a year later. It is missing the entire first down-leg, both cannot be correct. The tops are about 1/2 year off!

TSE March 27

TSE , S&P , NASDAQ , DAX and NIKKEI

Hamilton

TSE March 24

spx march 24

Nasdaq march 24

DAX march24

Nikkei March 24

Here we have the whole lot. From TSE to S&P to Nasdaq and then overseas to DAX and Nikkei. All charts are similar but as you go down the list the idea of a triangle moves from a perfect fit to less likely in the case of the Nikkei. Anyway after yesterday it is clear that we are not going to get that little leg down that  would make it conclusive. Not that surprising seeing that just about everything looks like a buy. RY in the meantime is up almost $12 from the low just under $26, all of this in two weeks.

On the TSE we are entering a corrective up wave that typically retraces at least 38% (10400), often 50% (11250)  and or 68% (12135).  That does not mean that we might not first get a little pull back but for the time being one should try to be long. Some segments of the market are already up 20% or so, whereas others have not budged that much (Sherritt f.i.). By the way, BBD.B made the 30% sell point and so did BAC.