Back in business. Here is the TSE and the DAX with the Shanghai index frown in for good measure.  All have done, more or less, the same thing, that is drop 50% or more initially and then regain 50 to 62% the other way on the retracement. Notice also that in the last 3 or 4 months none have added much value, at least not compared to the initial spurt: the momentum is obviously dying.  This , ultimate target for the TSE is in this blog going back to the beginning of the year, so even though I may have suggested getting out or even going short earlier it does not follow that the analysis is wrong; it only means that the market- for whatever reason , is pushing the envelope to the extreme.

A slightly higher level remains a possibility, both in the TSE , and even more so, in the DAX, but hoping for that may just not be worth it.

Somewhere here we could have a big reversal. However the market is extraordinarily persistent so tread carefully. We are not quite in the “box”.

Just an update on the TSE, clearly the minimum retracement has occurred, will it go further??? Unfortunately I do not know but my best guess is that we first go down 1000 to 1500 points, then we may go up a little further. The important thing here is not to get burnt, go back to cash.