Once again the TSE in detail. No further comments.

Quick update on TSE. It did the proverbial 1000 points, just shy by 20/20 0r so- now what? Here are the charts in detail;

The charts have different time frames! Click on them to enlarge.  The entire drop too about 3 weeks therefore the counter-trend wave 2 might consume about a week to 10+ days, on average. A minimum retracement would be about 400 points and perhaps even 600. Looking at the last leg down AND given the surprisingly negative tone after the great GDP numbers in the US it points to a wedge (diagonal 5th wave); if correct we should at the very least get back up to 11420. If on the other hand we are looking at a 4-5, 4-5 series this logic does not apply, but 400 points up does. If this is the beginning of wave 3 of a larger degree , it may pay to err on the cautious side and get short earlier rather than later.

Last Monday’s (Jan. 11) high and immediate reversal may well have been the top. Despite already having lost 500 points since then, still remains to be seen if that was it If not than we have already created the necessary overlaps and one more brief push to a new high remains possible (BUT I DO NOT THINK SO).  Either way , from a risk/reward point of view it seems to be a much better bet to play the short side.

It has never been entirely clear to me if the rebound from the lows was in fact a simple A-B-C structure or an A-X-C . The former subdivides is two 5-waves patterns with an intermission in the middle, the latter is in fact twice that  but the same size, a-b-c X a-b-c.  The difference is immaterial for those that are not overly interested in EW per se.

In any event the outlook in both  scenarios is about the same, top already in or at about 12100+, time of arrival late Jan. early Feb, or top in just 2 days ago.