TRE, update

tre july 28

Today’s high was $8.29, shy of the expected $8.36. It may still happen if we are in a minor wave 4 of C, and then again, maybe we go much higher by closing the gap. I would get out as my computer does not allow micro analysis since i cannot get tick charts. Also this is becoming a duel between the I-hate-the-stock and the I-love-the-stock hedge funds. I suspect both are massaging their own book, as usual.

TRE, Sino Forest

tre july 26 2011

BigCharts shows better. Wave 3 of the drop, invariable the one with the big gap, is rather easy to identify especially since the gap is pretty well in the middle. This , however, leaves the possibility that the 5-wave sequence is not yet complete as there is at least one, if not two, waves before wave 3 starts. This leaves the possibility that we are presently in a 4th wave. One can never be certain but the up move from the lows very definitely looks like an a-b-c. If you did buy , as advised, and are still holding it, I would sell at about $8.30 if it gets there, otherwise use a stop-loss at , say, $6.45, just under today’s low.

TRE, Sino Forest update

TRE MAY8 2010 TRE june 24 2011  TRE june 14 2011 TRE July 4 2011

These are some of the old recommendations, click on charts  and they will get larger. You can also find the entire blogs by going to the index. We recommended a sell at about $5 simple because that was a huge gain in a very short time and because an a-b-c correction could have been complete at that time. It did drop 50% from there so what is going on now?

tre july 2011

When a stock drops in a 5 wave sequence one should expect a A-B-C correction, this can be simple or complex. We did the A from a $1.29 low to $5.30 or $4,01. Then wave B cut that in half to $3.36. B should continue up to $8.37 where C=A ( 3.36 + 4.01 = 8.37). The gap starts at $ 8.53 so it may try that as well.  Ultimately higher levels are certainly possible. $13.57 would close the gap and that is just a 50% retracement but all this is pure speculation. Stick to the sure stuff.

TRE, Sino Forest. Monkey see, monkey do!

TRE July 4 2011

So Muddy Waters killed the stock and Wellington has reignited it. Neither is exactly true but it does show how totally mindless investing is. I recommended this stock a fortnight ago (that is 14 days!) at , say $3, you could have bought it their or even 40 cents or so lower. Today you can sell it for $4.50 for a gain of at least 50%, which,  by the way, is 1250% per annum not including compounding. The stock may go higher yet but right now the correction from the lows looks a lot like an a-b-c. As mentioned in my previous blog, this could – repeat, could – simple be a fourth wave. Time will tell but if it is, a 5th down should follow and you can do the whole thing again.