Last time we thought TLM might do a little better from the recent low of about $10 and move up to , say , $17. So far at least it has not reason perhaps to revisit that prediction. Having stalled at $13 the possibility of a triangle presents itself. The clearest part of this chart is the B-wave, the rest is all (educated) guesswork. Stocks dance around with a certain elegance and symmetry that is ,more often than not, hard to explain, so if we engineer this in reverse the possibility that C is not complete becomes very compelling and we may well get the original target of <$8.

See previous blogs, last we recommended stepping aside once the stock reached $15. After that it did dip down again to a target of $10 but did not make it to the “ideal” target of $8 having been stopped by the line connecting all lows. Here are today’s charts;

EW allows for various interpretations at this time. On balance it would seem that the stock will go up after this latest dip (wave 2?) is complete at between $12 and $11 (60%), then another leg up (wave 3 or wave c) should start that could easily take the stock to $17 or higher. On the downside one has to keep in mind that the stock never made it to the “ideal”target of $8, so it could still do that. A stop at around $11 right now seems appropriate. The RSI and MACD favour higher levels, oil itself perhaps not but there seems to be very little correlation between this stock and the stuff itself. The stock itself has a large idiosyncratic or stock specific component and therefore does not listen to the same drummer.

In the alternate count the stock could rise significantly in the B wave and then more or less collapse. Initially that should still be positive.  See also previous blogs.

Between here and $15 we would exit this position (if you have it) and take a 25% gain. The stock could go substantially higher ($17) but that would be gambling.

Talisman did not make that last leg down which we hoped for but were not sure we would get. We know now that it is not going to happen anymore. In the mean time the company reported atrocious earnings and the stock went up, a clear sign that things are getting bullish. If you did buy at around $12 or so look for about $14.50+ to get out.(see 2 blogs ago, where $3 on $12 was viewed as a minimum upside.)