Talisman’s takeover was confirmed this morning at $13bln. The stock has traded at $7.45 US which is $8+ in Can $. We would say thank you very much and take the 60+% profit.

Here is a chart;

That is a 70+% gain in little more than a week. Also several opportunities to buy before the big move. Sometimes (very often!) EW does work.

So it looked like a buy on December 1, just a fraction above $5 but with the comment that it had a little further to go. So, if you did buy it <$5 you should wait un till it gets to at least $7, $6 is too low. One rule in Mergers & Acquisitions is that you should seize the moment in a very opportunistic manner but, at the same time, pay a little too much as you will have to live with the victim or its shareholders. (Think Bear Sterns and JPM). In that context $7 is a bare minimum, wait for it.

This looks like it is there, almost. %-waves complete from $12.

The usual then – March 2013 – and now charts.

At the time TLM was about $11, it is now closer to $6. $5.63 would be a potentially reasonable target but there are no assurances as the longer term chart does not speak very loudly. The more detailed look is actually rather promising.

On this chart the triangle is much clearer (potentially there are two). At the $6 level both the RSI and MACD are screaming “buy”. Proportionately it has dropped a same amount in the first part down from $24 to $10 as it now his from the top of the triangle at $14 to $6. In each case roughly 60%. The drop now exceeds the triangle measure AND it is occurring perpendicularly under one of the apexes. This stock should be a buy here or above $5.63