This was then;
Here is now;
We are not sure about the count, except that the rebound in October is corrective. It could be a wave 4 as shown in the above chart. Whatever the case the next big move should be down. Incidentally, the stock was down by no less than 60% or so at the lows,a pretty good bear market in it’s own right.
Back in January as the stock peaked at about $65, we came up with this chart for TCK. The old highs had been exceeded and the whole things looked like and smelled like a B-wave. If not ,it would be a 5 wave sequence. In both cases the stock should drop to around $32 initially. Here is where it is today.
We are at $35, a loss of $30 on $65 or about 46%. Look for that to become 50% at it drops further to the level of the B wave in the larger B-wave rally. Note that this stock was on most advisors buy list. I do not believe there was a 5-wave sequence, but the jury is still out. If indeed this was a large B-wave rally instead the stock could make new lows even if it pauses at around $32.!
Back in January we recommended this stock be sold when it was trading just under $64. The target then was at least $32 but perhaps a lot lower. Here is the chart, now and then;
Should the stock drop just a little further overlap will occur making it almost a certainty that the leg up from the lows was indeed a B-wave, the lower target of $3 will then become more plausible.
If correct one would expect Freeport to look rather similar, it does,now and then.
See previous blogs. Overlap will occur at $45 or under.
On Jan 15 we thought this stock had peaked at $65 and should be sold, here are updated charts;
We still are of the opinion that the last move up was NOT a 5th wave but a B-wave instead. This fits much better with a whole lot of other stocks (see also FM). The implications are not much different either way, except that the downside target may be a bit lower than in the case of a triangle (rather unlikely)
.
In the mean time the stock has dropped almost $20 ( 30%) in what would be a first wave. After that it may have completed an a-b-c or perhaps only the a-b part with c still to go. By the time wave 3 is done the stock should be close to $30.