In our 2011 blog we explained how this stock would decline either in an A-B-C zig-zag or a simple 5-wave sequence, all depending on where the actual top was. Most probable it was in 2007 so this C wave had to become a 5-wave sequence (see also Vale and WLT). We have that and we have participated in the first up leg, good for about a 100% return if sold close to $11. In this chart you can see why that $11 level was important. It is the upper trend line of the channel that has been operative for the better part of the last six years. The stock simple cannot break out on the first run.

If we are correct in our overall assessment than one should expect a retracement of about 38% at the very least, of course if we are in a new bull market we should go to new highs but that might be a lifetime away. 38% of about $60 is $22 and if we take $4 as the starting point that gets us to $26. So really we should own this stock, but not if we can get it cheaper than it is today. We think chances are good that you can get this for $7.50, see below;

If you can get the stock at say $7.50 or lower, your return will improve dramatically, after all the “buy low” part of “buy low and sell high” is half of the equation. If this analysis is correct “break out” should soon follow after which a double is again a reasonable expectation as W1 up appears to be a 5 wave sequence and should then be followed by another. In the worst case it could become an a-b-c correction but should still lead to a double, give or take.

By the way,  gold stocks are trading in the same way as TCK.B.  They probable, recently, completed their first leg up (see ABX) and are now correcting in a wave 2. Gold itself idem ditto except it may have a lot further down to go ultimately.

The usual, then 23d. Aug. 2015, and now charts.

In the text we said that normally a new low should be made. That low was, as far as we can ascertain at $4.25. The new low was actually at $3.65, so let us assume that you followed the blog and bought at $4.25 or even $5. Today you will have doubled your money (almost) but in the next few days this stock should go to about $11 (wave 4 of previous degree). There it would be good to exit as a wave 2 can retrace an awfully large part of W1.

Here are our comments made in July 2012,including that chart;

When you look closely and apply a little common sense, it is all of a sudden not that hard to see how this stock could go to $15 if the pendulum swings through it’s equilibrium as it invariable does. If you like the H&S approach the target is lower at around $10. The true EW target is actually below $5.

and from 2011;