On Feb. 24 I suggested this one could still trade down to about $30. It did not quite make it as it only reached $30.65 on March 9, together with the whole universe. Potentially this one could go to say $39 or even higher, about $6 above todays’ price so it might still be worth doing. Sorry, next time I will sharpen my pencil.

The big picture  is still negative but there is a good trading opportunity. First the big picture.

  Very much like all the others (GE etc.) so could go a lot lower but for the moment.

It could go up to about $30, so from say $20+ there is a handsome  return opportunity of about 50%. On the big chart $20 does look meaningful.

Here is Telus again. It may have completed the ride down but it did not yet reach our original target of $30 ($31.25 was yesterday’s low). That low was obtained by looking at the pattern and/or structure of the decline, i.e. pure EW which is concerned primarily with the psychology. Overlay that with a little technical analysis, of which, I at least , do not claim to know much, one will notice that the bottom line has been touched precisely four times. As we know the chance of having 2 points on a line is 100%, 3 or 4, 1 in a million, so clearly someone is looking at that line. Maybe we should too and buy at $30 when and if it gets there a 5th or 6th time. Upside from there is to $44 minimum. Remember the bottom may already be in if all those watching that line got impatient!

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Costs of communications are inexorable dropping to zero and no doubt this process will continue. Of course some of this is offset by eye-balls, bundling and other gimmicks and or hidden costs but in the end this is a commodity and therefore one has to be very careful owning these for the long run. However within the context of the next year or two Telus looks relatively attractive at these prices. The stock appears to be dropping in a wedge-like formation and this is usually indicative of a turn in the next week or two. Worth keeping an eye on if it gets to about $30.