Back in Febr . we anticipated SU to make a B-wave, and then drop. Can. Oil sands had a similar pattern but there were good reasons to have misgivings about the validity (see previous blogs). Here are the charts , then and now;

above was then, below is now;

The target then was estimated to be about $50, mostly based on the usual 62% retracement. In reality the stock reached $47.5. Given the action subsequent to that event, there is overlap, it is now highly unlikely that the B-wave scenario would prove to be wrong, which implies that we will see $30 soon and much lower later.

If this prediction turns out to be correct, it will be most upsetting to the “analysts et al” that are simple convinced that this is the blue chip to own in the oil, and mostly, gas biz . If there ever was a “confirmation bias” this would be it.

Suncor reported earnings, not surprisingly they were very good, exactly what the chart was suggesting. Here it is;

The big charts is like most, 5 up followed by a correction that looks a lot like an incomplete a-b-c. Normal target is in the order of $50 or so in order to get symmetry (c=a) and get to the 50/60% retracement level (see detail chart). The pattern is pretty straightforward with the b as a triangle. (the triangle may be shorter than shown!). The stock at about $42 should therefore have about $8 potential.

Canadian Oil Sands is a different kettle of fish;

Notice that in the big picture both stocks look pretty much the same. However short-term COS has not really budged at all of the lows. Perhaps this has yet to happen but nevertheless it raises the caution flag! Last September we already expected the stock to start moving up , see chart below. So far the move is rather anemic which may be telling us something.

Use stops at around $22.