S&P

S&P , TSE etc etc the 3 possibilities.

Hamilton

Just to explain where we might be. The assumption is that we are in some sort of super-cycle degree move. It is possible that this is actually not the case in which case an argument could be made that the A-B-C is done. Notice that B went slightly above and below A in this 9 year pattern and that may just be all there is to it. The DAX has not even gone low enough. Maybe but there are some pretty strong arguments against this view. C is often MUCH larger than A. Also other exchanges do not rhyme with this. Therefore the assumption is that wave C has only completed wave 1 of C as shown, allowing for a big drop to come.S&P May22

This rhymes with the TSE.

TSE May 22

Note that this index, like the NYSE and the Dax and many others has NOT EVEN made it to the 4-wave of previous degree. Now there is nothing to say that it must do that but in al probability if it has not yet it will. So about 6000 or lower is still very realistic even though this could have been an A-B-C where the A and B are very small and the C the %-wave down that we have witnessed. It did go down about 50% and it does contain oil etc. to make it a little different.

A third and last possibility is that we are making a very big triangle. It would have to be irregular as 5-waves do not fit in a triangle. Unfortunately nothing is certain, however considering that this is a 300 year degree correction a return to the 26 year 1000 top on the DOW would be perfectly normal!

S&P (SPX) April 25 by comparison to TSE

Hamilton

S&P April 25

Just to compare the two, here is the S&P. Unlike the TSE it has , so far at least , stayed within the par. boundaries (red) quite precisely) Waves A and C (purple) are vector equal but also equal in time and amplitude, precisely in fact. And even though we are not even close to the 200-day moving average, the distance from the low at the devilish 666 level to the high of 875+ works out to 31,3% (more than historically for a wave 2) Both the RSI and the MACD are already dropping. The wedge is much clearer than on the TSE and does have a completed look. Also, as yet we have not made a new high since Monday. The only remaining fly in the ointment is that as a C-wave there should be 5 waves , that is not crystal clear.

S&P , DAX , Nikkei and TSE April 16

Hamilton

They are not all entirely comparable but they all carry the same message. We are at a very important juncture and for that reason it is prudent to step aside. Unlike most brokers I believe that there is a red light ,a green light and an amber (or yellow ) light. The biggest mistake made is that of inaction! The market has been very bullish, up 24% or so and in some individual cases a lot more so I think this could be the halfway point and we take away a good part of the gains. Time will tell but the pattern, a flat wave (4?) occurs in all markets and should be followed by a dive, perhaps to new lows but we will see how it unfolds if it does. The bull case could just continue but in light of the evidence this is an amber light. Here are the charts.

S&P April 16

DAX April 16

Nikkei April 16

TSE April 16

Remember, you can click on them to enlarge, also you can move them across your screen so you have two or more side by side.