So it looks now as if the triangle is complete. See our blog of a fortnight ago. If this is the correct interpretation then $28 or $21 is a real possibility. This would be negated by a rise to $44 or above. This triangle as a 4th wave “fits” the bigger picture. Judging by where the apex of this triangle is, a low might occur sometime in the month of August.

See also our previous blog on SNC. In the big picture we are now wondering if a triangle wave 4 is in the making. This would be very bullish so we are only wondering but nevertheless, given another small triangle that the stock just sort of dropped out, it seems quite possible that this stock would, before doing anything else, rebound to that $45 level. As far as we can tell this thrust has the right size and structure so it may be done. To play it safe -  not always the smartest thing to do – you may want to watch it drop closer to $32.80.

Some people believe this stock may be overdone to the downside. There is this boyish looking Maxim , head of research at Dundee, who is very intelligent and articulate and does suggest it is overdone. I believe his target is around $50 or so.

The big picture, the one on the left, allows for at least two different interpretations depending where you put the top. Also , if you are in the DOW 40000 camp, it is not that difficult to “see” a triangle forming that requires just a little e down before we get the thrust up to $85 or higher. We are NOT in that camp, partly because the short –term chart, the one on  the right is decidedly unequivocally bearish. It is a near perfect a-b-c counter-trend rebound that is done. A break of $48 should confirm this but we would not wait for that. A sell now.

See also our April previous blog. We were expecting a rebound to $43 and then a drop to about $32. The former has happened, albeit slightly late, and the latter will take a little longer as well. $32 is on its way if the pattern is that of a double zig-zag. A more bearish target emerges if one assumes that the top in 2008 was not THE top but just the top of wave 3. That would put the real top in 2011 and would allow this correction that we are in to unfold as an a-b-c. Cs are often much larger than the a so much lower targets can be obtained. The chart below shows that possibility;

The stock, by the way, is trading at a p/e of about 21 so it is definitely not undervalued which is pretty obvious from a superficial glance at the chart.

It is somewhat ironic that the Spanish, who are now in so much trouble with their real estate , were a 1/3 partner through Cintra in the consortium led by SNC that bought the  407 highway from the Ontario (Harris) government for a song ($3.1 bln). So the last shall be first, and the first last. Where was the “net benefit” then??