slf

SLF and MFC April 17 Update from March 30

Hamilton

On March the 30th (you can pull it up by putting the ticker symbol into the search box at the top) I suggested that both stocks were at worst in an a-b-c up pattern of which the a and part of b were complete . For SLF I suggested $19 and as a result you would not own it as the stock made the b low that day. However on MFC I suggested you buy it at the next pull-back as otherwise you would miss a $5-$10 potential gain. The next pull-back would have been a day later at roughly $14.

MFC April 17

It did about $7 up or roughly 50%, again we will call it 30% . SLF did essentially as expected but we simple missed the proverbial boat, but not the first time!

SLF April 17

By the way, if this is all we get it is pretty bearish for both stocks as this a-b-c pattern is corrective!

SLF and MFC March 30

Hamilton

I am assuming, as I did before (see SLF),  that 5 down was complete and now at the very least we should have a correction back to the top of the triangle, normally in an a-b-c structure. The a was complete with the big move up and now for the last day or two we have been working on the b. As indicated, on SLF at about $19 or so, it should be bought for the c part. Here are the charts.

SLFMarch 30

 

MFC MARCH30

It is hard to tell if we are down deep enough, it is simple a matter of weighing the chances of missing the boat against the potential of $5-$10 up. On the next down day I would buy.

SLF March 25

Hamilton

SLF March25

SLF march25 2

Here is an update on Sunlife. It is now almost at $24 from just under $15 (so you should not own it if you work with the 30% rule). So where do we go from here? (Top chart is arithmetic, lower one log-scale). I normally hesitate to count “corrective” moves as they are very erratic and all over the map but this one provides an opportunity to make the 30% twice. The stock dropped from about $55 to $15 or roughly $40. It is “normal” to get a retracement of about 50-62%, (Gartman’s Box) so if we stick to the lower end of the range the stock could reach 15+20=35 on a rebound but it will not do it in a straight line. More often than not it will retrace 1/2 or so of the up move that has already occurred. So wait for it to get to about 18/19 and then buy it again.