slf

SLF and MFC

Hamilton

slf nov 19 2011 mfc nov 19 2011

One I think might be a buy, whereas the other is a model case of not how to do it. The difference is perhaps not all that apparent, but Manu has been going south for much longer than SunLife. More importantly the exposure by Manu to the equity markets is, I believe, much larger, but I do not have specific info to this effect. From a pure EW point of view Sun appears to have completed a clean 5 wave sequence down. Manu on the other hand needs to go down a bit further which could potentially create a new low below that of 2009 at around $8.50 or so. Keep in mind that the Sun buy is only for a trade of about $6 and not a hold under any circumstances.

SLF again and MFC

Hamilton

slf nov 15 2 2011

Here it is in a little more detail. Today’s low registered at $ 20.96  If there was a triangle wave 5 already has the required 5 wave subdivisions even if they are hard to recognize. If there never was a triangle, a wave 4 and 5 is still required to finish the job.  A move to, say $23 followed by a drop to a new low would do the trick. The 5th wave is already almost equal to wave 1 and time wise we are pretty close to the apex (if that applies). The best you can hope for is about $20.25 and it should happen within two weeks. Little point in waiting!

Unless you look at Manulife which is either making a very complex and incomplete wave 4, or simple just another 4 and 5;

mfc nov 15 2011

If it does that it will likely get to the all time low of $9

SLF, Sunlife Financial

Hamilton

Sept. 22nd , 2011 we had a tentative target for Sunlife around $ 22. Here is that chart and today’s.

slf sept 22 2011 slf nov 15 2011

We have gone a little further than $22, and have done so in a decidedly unclear way. Nevertheless the picture overall suggests a 5-wave movement down to the lower channel trend line at just under $22 is complete. The stock is now earning almost 7% and trades at a p/e of about 7. The end of wave 3 could be as shown, possible making wave 4 a rather awkward triangle; or wave 3 could end at the lowest point in the middle of the channel. Waves 5 and 1 are about equal, a common event.  A rebound of about $5 to around $26 is now highly probable. That would even be the case if we have only finished wave 3, as wave 4 would also require a $5 rebound.

slf nov 15 b 2011

Conceivable this stock could require another C leg up to complete an A-B-C countertrend correction (the B is the a-b-c shown). This is a little at odds with the market overall and , more specifically, the headwinds that insurance companies are experiencing in this low interest, low investment returns environment.