No harm in thinking aloud.

As far as I can tell there are 3 possible counts for Royal Bank stock. The third I would dismiss out of hand as highly unlikely. I include it only for the sake of completeness. The other two are equally possible but the one with the triangle has a greater degree of certainty and “looks” a bit better. In the end all three are pretty horrible if they come true.

Then, Sept. 8, and now charts as usual;

Almost three months ago we had some misgivings about the bear case, at least with respect to our biggest bank. The pattern at the time was just too compelling. On the balance of probabilities it was a rather clear A-B-C corrective flat! As always with EW it is often very difficult to wholeheartedly embrace a possibility that is at odds with your general expectations. At least we put it in a blog. Also keep in mind, as we pointed out many moons ago, that RY trades exceptionally well off the RSI. Invariable both the buy and sell signals, that is below 30% and above 70% work. Keep an eye on that all the time!

Some of the other big banks have similar or comparable patterns. Some do not so one should be careful not to generalize. As far as RY is concerned a new high, that is above $81 is a reasonable expectation. If it happens you will have waited an entire year during which you had to agonize over a loss of 16% in order to earn a 5% dividend. Not something you would want to do a second time.

By the way, a $10 bln. profit for a single company in Canada is a record. Some might think it is deserved, others may think that it is simple obscene.

We have looked at this chart for hours and have to conclude that, perhaps, the pattern within the chart represents an A-B-C correction that follows the typical “flat” 3-3-5 structure. In this case the C has a distinct diagonal signature which is normally associated with a termination of the trend, which was down, at least for the duration of this correction if that is what it is.

It is hard to rhyme this pattern with the action displayed by some of the smaller ones such as CWB and HCG both of which are down already 40% or so. But then LB is very close to making a new high. With such mixed signals we have to keep an open mind for developments that do not fit.

Alternative possible interpretations do exist, as in a series of 1-2’s, but none look clean and convincing so be prepared .