RY update March 11 (see RY Feb 19)

If you are still long the stock as per previous comments it is time to “calibrate” the trade, remember all we want is the sure part,not the gamble. Here is the chart.

RY March 10

 

Today’s 15% rise in the stock was almost predicable , if not in magnitude at least in direction,considering the comments yesterday on cutting dividends, see C. When a stock hits a bottom  predicted at $26, it should turn and initially you have no idea if it was a minor low, or THE low or whatever. Only with hindsight that becomes clear so what you look for is the absolute minimum that the stock has to do. Regardless of whether a new bull market has started or whether there is just a correction the first 3 legs are always the same and KNOWN. In this case the  a-leg was from 26 to 32 (about 6), the b-leg took back about half of that to about 29, now the c- leg should add 6 which brings us to roughly 35. There you should sell. Not only have you earned 34% (more than 30%) but from that point you simple do not know what is going to happen, otherwise known as gambling. There is always another train.

By the way, I think the stock can go much higher but the point is that that is not the point.

BMO , RY Feb 19 again

Another look at the banks can be informative. First I have made it rather well known that I was VERY bearish on the banks, way too early perhaps as I have held this view for at least 3 years now, if not longer. Here is why;

RY bc feb19

RY big c feb 19

First of all the stock is up in (arguable) 5-waves, increasing the tangent with each new leg up suggesting a bubble of sorts  that would require a large correction any time. Normally to the 4th wave of previous degree that could be at $23 to $14. This move, as with all the banks does not correlate to the growth in population or any other metric that would justify it. Also it far exceeds all the “other” stocks as shown in the lower chart overlaying the TSX, which itself did pretty well but was outperformed by about 1500% from the base in ‘74.

Looking at BMO things are a little clearer as the position of the 4th wave is less ambiguous.

BMO BC Feb 19 The target here is $21, if we go that far.

RY Feb 19

ry feb 19

I will go out on a limb on the Royal Bank, it is a buy at $26 or so. That just happens to be a precise 50% from the top at about $62. This is a trading recommendation, not a “buy and hold”. Ultimately the stock can go to about $10 but that is just too ridiculous to contemplate at this point. In the meantime a rebound of 20-30% is reasonable. good luck

RY slight adjustment Jan 26

tse-jan-261Royal got hit pretty hard on account , I understand, of their total return swaps. I have no idea how big that is but it is in line with what hit Manulife even if it is easier to forgive them as mortality tabels are pretty constant and so they may have confused these attributes and believed them to apply to the stockmarkets. whatever the underlying reason EW does not care as the charts will divulge all anyway. Here it is again.