On Feb 10 (see previous comments, they can be retrieved by putting PFE in the search engine!), Pfizer looked like a buy under $13 but given the overall stock market it might overshoot by one or two dollars (it did by 1 1/2 to about $11.62) so perhaps you bought at $12.50. from there we are up two dollars so one should still be in it. I would un till something else derails the thought , wait for at least 30% (16.25) or better yet, the 200 day moving average ( yellow) at about $18. The trigger for this move was the phase whatever trial for a pancreatic drug that was stopped in order for the placebo taking check group to join the party ( pancreatic cancer is for all intents and purposes the end, period.).  My late father was once the CEO of Philips- Duphar, one of the largest Dutch pharma companies, and by osmosis I have learned from him that this is not a very  transparent business as you do not necessarily get what you see. There was, and perhaps still is, a small Canadian company that worked on a similar product and , if I remember correctly , you could extend a patient’s life by perhaps at the most a few months at a cost of $30.000 or so. Not the kind of stuff blockbusters are made of. But in the mean time enjoy the ride, this sector has been beaten down for about 10 years now.

On Feb 10, see my previous comments on PFE, I suggested we should continue down to the line which was just a little under $13. We made a low of $12.50 and that implies that we are at the buy point. See RSI, MACD and OBV as well.  They are all supporting this view . $15 is minimum and $17 very probable. Keep taking those pills.

As per our Feb2 0utlook the stock is dropping and is now in the $13 area. The blue line is the target and is just under $13 level, also it has done 5 waves. However, given the overall market position, which looks like it is falling in the elusive 5th wave, this could go a dollar or so  deeper than that. Both RSI and MACD support this point as being a low within this time-frame.

 

Pfizer is the largest drug company in the US. As with most of these companies their  modus operandi differs from the run-of-the-mill, straight vanilla, companies’ way of doing business. Unlike, for instance GM, that has simple met ( not lately) demand for the past hundred years, drug companies do not just meet demand. For the most part they are responsible for creating it as well , and actually spend more on marketing than R&D. Being bureaucracies they are not very good at research and consequently rely very heavily on smaller drug companies where the incidence of the “eureka”  moment is far more frequent and then taking them over by way of making an offer that cannot be refused.  All of this with patent protection, now up to 20 years , and many other little loopholes to boot, and you have a great model that almost guarantees outlandish profits. But remember that they are skating on very thin ice. No real demand, generic competition, government subsidies and an iffy legal framework for protection, and most importantly, an efficacity of less than 60% according to BW, a very volitile brew!

    Not being a user of medication other than the odd aspirin, I do not have a first-hand understanding of the the difference between a “need”and a “want” when it comes to things like Lipitor or Viagra or whatever. What does seem pretty clear to me is that the day is coming, and coming soon, that this is all going to deflate  and shrink back to normal. Perhaps tomorrow, governments all over the world will figure out that a good book will be as good a cure as any,better perhaps than the no-cost placebo, and stop paying for this. Not good for big pharma.

     But big pharma has been down for 10 years now so in the meantime  a little renaissance may be around the corner. Pfizer looks like a good buy for the short –term. See chart, it should hit a low soon and then rebound nicely. Not sure what the WYE deal does for it. 60+ billion is a lot of money to pay for someone else’s pipeline. Maybe why the stock cratered recently.