PFE

PGE Pfizer, COM Cardiome Pharma.

Hamilton

PFE 2011 big

It took ten years to go from $3 to $50. Then it took  ten years to lose 76% (a Fibo#) of that. PFE was in good company during this slide as many other large pharma (specifically Merck MRK) companies did exactly the same. See previous comments, but it now looks like we have a breakout that may signal a change in fortunes. Yes Lipitor is going generic soon but they also acquired Wyeth not too long ago. The population is aging and the stock has a dividend yield of 4.4% and a reasonable P/E ratio. In my opinion this stock has a very reasonable asymmetric risk/reward profile.

com 2011 

Cardiome Pharma Corp. lost just as much in less than half the time. It also operates in the vascular space. It is relatively small and accordingly the risks are substantially higher. But there appears to be a very intriguing pattern (expanding wedge) that could imply that the stock will shoot up to $11/$15 soon. A speculative buy at about $6.

PFE

Hamilton

pfe 2011 jan

As you get older you love to hate  big pharma, certainly when you start with a father as head of the largest Dutch company, Duphar, telling you every day how the business stinks. These guys are the marketers of the world. It is no coincidence that RBC’s top broker, before he got fired,or should I say shown the door, was from the Montreal pharma industry. But enough is enough, we keep thinking about buying low and selling high and Pfizer fits the bill! More and more people will need lipitor, they will just change the color and get another 25–year  patent protection. Perhaps, just perhaps, 80% down was enough. Not yet convinced but willing to put it on the table. Is that a break-out???

AMGN

Hamilton

amgn 2010 amgn 2010 2

Big Pharma has been giving mixed signals. Amgen is a good example as it has , arguable, spent the last two years going absolutely nowhere with higher lows and lower highs, suggesting the possibility of a triangle. These only occur as waves 4 in a 5-wave sequence, or as waves B in an A-B-C. The short-term chart on the left seems to favor the notion that the triangle is a B wave and consequently an explosive thrust up should start any moment (perhaps today with the announcement of a new prostate cancer drug). The longer-term chart on the right leaves more possibilities, one of which suggest that this might in fact be a 4th wave of C in a multi year corrective move that is not yet complete. A breakout either way will clarify the situation.

By comparison I have added charts of PFE , BAX  and MRK.

PFE 2010 pfe 2010 2

Pfizer, see previous comments, overall favors the bull case having already lost 80% of its value. Today’s dividend announcement may push the stock through the upper trend-line.

BAX 2010 BAX 2010 2

BAX also favors the upside, that is at least to the level of the b-wave in the last A-B-C correction. MRK, see previous comments, is presently sitting in the middle of nowhere

In conclusion, a buy with a tight stop would be the way  to go on AMGN.

PFE May 14 , time to step aside.

Hamilton

PFE May 14

See also Feb.26 input where we suggested a buy for a rise to $16/18. It is getting there slowly but I would get out now. All 4 indicators, red arrows point to a possible immediate reversal. More importantly yhe move from the low, though perhaps not quite complete, looks a lot like a simple a-b-c, so at the very least a drop to about $13 is possible. no point in sticking around.