OTC Open Text, Feb 2010.

I have been wrong on this one on thinking that it would triple top and go no further. Well it did and it showed its cards clearly. This is a short soon!

OTC Jan 2010 2 OTC Jan 2010

Bothe the multi year trend line and the triangle measure suggest a top around $51/52. However this is a pretty sure thing so you may want to make your move a little earlier or play it with put options. This pattern is very clear and very reliable!

OTC Open Text May 7

To update the situation with Open Text, one of the few stocks where we were bearish in the past two or three months (the other being WMT that behaves like the rock of Gibraltar), the following chart;

OTC May 7

Remember, see archives, that this stock had multiple tops at about the same level over many years, again we have a precise double top, I assume the first one is the real one but I cannot be too confident about that. Anyway ,since that point ,we are down to $35 or 20% from the top. This is most probable wave 3 and incomplete at that. $27 remains initial target despite  the need for a little relief from an oversold position.

OTC March 30

OTC MARCH30

Some time ago this stock was expected to drop (after a triple top over many years), it did drop after peaking on the trend-line. The drop is a 5-wave move and therefore there is a very good chance that further drops are in store. Even so a brief attempt at $46 cannot be excluded. All in all this remains a short on a risk/reward basis.