A lot of oil related ETFs like USO have been bought the last few months. The notion that you will invariable double your money in the next year or two is firmly embraced by most. That may well be the correct prognosis but the real question is not where oil will be two years from now, instead the question should be “Will you still own it if it first goes to $30-35 before that happens?”.

Oil is not doing what was expected. The rise to , say, $60, the top of the triangle , did not occur even though the structure was acceptable as an a-b-c. All this could still be part of a more complex wave 4 (an irregular flat?) but if we go much further down that interpretation will be plain wrong. In the mean time we are not even sure of the degree of this wave 4 ( 4 of 3 or 4 of the whole thing?). So we will wait un till such time that we can predict the past rather than the future. See also RDS.B.

Still on track.

This is still our prognosis for oil. The bigger the number, the higher the degree. In the end wave C should bottom at a level below the $31 level of 2010, most likely near $10 the level it reached in the second half of the nineties. By one count that was a wave 4!

Citygroup and Goldman both are “predicting” oil to drop to around $20. The problem is that they are not predicting but are instead manipulating. If enough players pay attention it will no doubt come to pass.