Last December, 2011 we anticipated that the stock was triangulating and consequently needed a 5th wave as a thrust. The logical targets (see that blog) where somewhere between $ 13  and $10 . Today, using the triangle measure that can be fine tuned to $12.50;

However, the triangle can be drawn with sharper triangle boundaries  which would move the e  slightly to the left and up. This would have the effect of slightly raising the target. Anyway, if short it may be a smart idea to buy back the stock. If buying outright I would wait, at least un till the RSI is well below 30.

Most Canadians look the other way when they see a stock with “Networks” in it. The irregular B-wave from the lows of early  2009 caught my eye and I could not resist. This stock should ultimately make a new low, below $12 or so at the very least as that is what the B-wave means. Using the very fallible  theory of the gap-in-the-middle , a target of $10 is obtained. That is another 50%. Superficially it looks like we are in a wave 4, which may or may not resolve itself as a triangle. If it does that, it would probable revolve around $23 and then drop down in the thrust. If the 5th wave thrust equals wave 1, or the mouth of the triangle it should drop to about $13. The slightest extension will get right into the target of $10. We will see.

I have absolutely no interest whatsoever in JNPR. I doubt that even a single reader of this blog would own it, or understand what it does, I certainly do not. But there is one thing that always seems to catch the interest and fascination of Canadian investors in particular, the word “network”. We got so infatuated with our own Nortel that at one point it constituted more than 30% of the capitalization of the TSE. So, for the fun of it, I put JNPR in my blog for the first time slightly more than two months ago (July 27), here are the then and now charts.

At the time the stock was already trading at about $32, from there it dropped to $16.67 losing about half it’s value over and above what it had already lost. The whole range of the drop was from $45.01 to $16.67 for a loss of 62.96%,very close to the ubiquitous Fibonacci 61.8 Needless to say, there was not a single analyst that predicted this outcome , even remotely. The problem with these guys is that they spend all day looking at minute fundamentals which for the most part they do not understand, and then conclude what the market should do. EW, and for that matter, most technical analysis which, by the way EW is definitely not, does the opposite. It “listens” to the market to hear what it says and then makes an educated guess as to where it might go. The results are invariable better.

Concerning JNPR, of course it is a buy at the $17 level, if only for a trade. The problem is that I have about 300 different stocks that come up from time to time and I do not have a computerized system that flags these events, so in that sense you are on your own.

Never paid much attention to Juniper Networks, but I thought I would put it up as another very good example of a B-wave. This one peaked early in time and at a higher level than required, probable being pulled up by the upper trend-line. But it is already down 30%. It may pause a bit around the $22 level but should ultimately continue to below the start of the corresponding A wave, or about  $13.