IVN

IVN, Ivanhoe

Hamilton

Just for completeness it may be constructive to add IVN to our analysis of TCK.B. This has been another favorite stock that has done quite well. It operates (not yet) from the barren steppes of Mongolia and is , supposedly , the largest single copper deposit in the world; moreover it is, arguable, within China. There could not be a more representative stock than this one to  signal where this market might go. Here is the chart (see also previous blogs);

ivn 2011 2 ivn 2011 1

Remember, you can click on the charts to enlarge them and then you can move them to make comparisons easier.

From the big chart we assume that the low on Nov. 21, 2008 was the end of an a-triangle b-c correction and that from there a new bull market began, or, alternatively a 5th wave which would then have to subdivide in 5 sub-waves.

Looking at the short-term chart 5-waves can be counted ( in blue). Waves 1 through 3 travel $15,74 from $2,06 to $17,80. A similar move for wave 5 from the low of 4 , a very common relationship, would have gotten the stock  to $29,17. In reality the stock overshoots by a little an reaches $30,28 on the 7th of Dec. 2010. This up-move can also be counted as a very large 3 wave B-wave, but that does not look that compelling. Either way the stock should now drop back to $13,43, the low of May 20th, 2010. It has already gone down $8 in a first, or a wave, and should very soon go down further in a 3d or c wave. If correct this certainly underscores the need for selling TCK.B very soon if not now.

DW, Dundee Wealth Management

Hamilton

We first recommended this stock at about $5.75, then suggested a sale at about $9 and later again at $15, each time pointing out that the stock could go much higher. After all it had done an A-B-C “correction” from $22 to below $4, a big move but still a correction implying , at least the possibility of a new high. Always mindful of how painful it is to lose money we are always a little eager to take profits, perhaps too eager. The stock is being taken over at $21, here is the chart.

DW Nov 2010

It did drop by about $3 after reaching $15 and it did spend about 8 months in the dog house but in just the last few months it shot up by almost $9 to essentially double top. The important message that can be taken from this is that when you have a perfectly symmetrical A-B-C it is possible that the correction is the entire correction and not just part of it, so a new high is just around the corner. This pattern occurs frequently, see for instance Ivanhoe IVN and, arguable , General Electric, GE.

IVN , Ivanhoe

Hamilton

This stock has, as expected, done exceptionally well. In the last comment , done in Febr. of this year, I mentioned a second leg down was required before the stock would go up again. We did get that second leg down as part of an irregular flat and did make new lows but not quite to the level of $11 as it only managed $13. Did not look at it again until today;

ivn sept 24 2010

The RSI is right up there with the MACD and most importantly we are at the trend-line. This COULD be 5 waves up but the last leg may still extend after a pause. To be prudent I would sell here even recognizing that the stock could still go much higher. As the longer term chart indicates, these mining stocks have their season,see below.

ivn sept 24 2010 2

IVN, Ivanhoe, Feb 2010

Hamilton

The stock dropped some $5 right on schedule. Since then it has rebounded and should soon go for the second leg down as a minimum. About $11 would be an ideal initial target. This may come about partly as a result of what is going on with copper itself. Here is the chart.

ivn feb 2010