Ivanhoe has disappointed by dropping below the $16 level, briefly. There is no other clear count so i am staying with this one but with a lot less confidence. Perhaps Carl Icahn will boost the stock by taking a maximum of 49% stake.

There are 10 previous blogs on this company. Last time in Jan.2011 the expectation was that the stock could drop quite a bit to around $13 from the $30 level where it had peaked. Here is that chart;

$13 was the most extreme as it was entirely possible that the drop would stop at the trend-line at $17.50 at that time if the drop was steep. It was not but it did get to that level. Today this is what we have;

So it did not  as deep as expected but it did trace out a very, very, nice “expanding diagonal triangle” wave C with the A and B in front of it. This is a highly reliable formation that calls for a sharp move back up to at least the origin of $30. A drop below $16 or so would negate this entire scenario.

Just the other day this company made the claim that it could mine its copper at a negative cost, that is the by-products (gold etc.) fetched enough to pay for the operation. This stock is out of phase with the rest of the space and it is huge.

Back in April (see blog) we recommended exiting this stock at around $24, but we did point out the possibility of a triangle which would imply a further rise.Here are the charts then and now.

On the left is the old chart, the green arrow shows what to expect if that had been a triangle. Fortunately I had my doubts and did not embrace that scenario (the entire wave in front appeared complete, so a 4th wave triangle did not fit well) .On the right is what actually happened. Needless to say, the stock did not go up.

Triangles are supposed to be 3-3-3-3-3 structure (sometimes with even more legs) Each individual leg should be a 3-wave structure itself. More often than not it is impossible to discern .

We have liked this stock a lot (see previous blogs) over the past few years, that is until Sept.  last year when it looked as if the stock might have completed a 5 wave move up (see chart on the left). However, the stock did not proceed down, rather it consolidated over an extended period of time suggesting that it may, just like copper, be forming a triangle which is now all but complete. If correct the stock could climb another $8 or so. The 5 wave must be wrong but this could be accommodated by assuming a set of 1-2, 1-2 at the bottom. A stop at about $22 is highly recommended as a break-down remains a distinct possibility. Oddly enough this company may ultimately become its own undoing as its size is such that it could swamp the market with copper once it is on stream.

Both the RSI and MACD continue in negative territory.

We first recommended the stock at $6/7, see below;