Back in the year 2000 this stock had peaked in the low seventies. Since then it has spent 18 years trying to get back up there. Since the initial low around $14 or so the stock has been working its way through an a-b-c correction. The b leg made a new low. What you are looking at above is a c wave diagonal or wedge.  It should normally break down right back to the start or even lower.

Just a quick update from the 16th. Looks like the diagonal may be complete, that is if you exclude the outlier of wave 3 in the diagonal. In any event this should drop to the $42/$41 level as diagonals are mostly completely retraced AND because that would close a previous gap which is also a common occurrence. In the end we expect a lot more than that. It should take about 2 months.

We all remember the “Intel inside, PENTIUM” logo that used to be stuck on the outside of every computer, lap-top and so on. Not sure if it is still inside today but clearly the stock is reaching a significant point in its life.

It has, or is about to, retrace a Fibo 61.8% of its drop from the highs of the tech bubble. Some of the more pedestrian technical indicators have been lagging the price and may be signalling a turn ahead. Most importantly there appears to be a diagonal forming this year. It may not be entirely complete – think throw-over and so on – but it is getting very close.  The pattern calls for a drop to about $42 which is roughly 20%. That is a minimum expectation.

The usual then – Nov 19, 2012 -  and now charts;

That, by the way, is a 20% move. There is alternation between waves 2 and 4 and consequently we are now in wave 5 down with a probable target of about $18 where it would, presumable, be a buy for at least a bounce back to $23, give or take.