Last time we suggested the stock was a buy as 5 –waves down were complete. Then a sell as an a-b-c was complete. From there the stock had a yellow light, i.e. who knows. In the meantime a very nice triangle has developed, see below;

Provided the stock stays below $72.50 (about where we sold) this triangle can only be a B-wave triangle and consequently the next leg should be C down to around $45. or 30%. We could still be in c of the triangle which then cannot exceed $74, not likely but possible. This would simple make the whole exercise more drawn out.

PS Today’s high was $71.46

We have our a-b-c, pretty nice and clean . With a gain of almost 10% in a week we are inclined to say thank you and bibifn.

Now that , predictable , the deal with Lundin is dead, the stock has a good chance of rallying roughly $6. It came down in a clear 5 wave sequence, right to the low point of a previous 4th wave triangle and has completed an a-b with a c still to come . That is the minimum expectation. It could possible go higher if the very large B-wave from the lows was not yet complete. Do not believe that it was not but who knows for sure. Use a stop at yesterdays close.

I do not like the “on request” approach as more often than not you are forced into an opinion, which is antithetical to the E-wave approach which is preeminently opportunistic in that there are thousands of stocks so why bother with the vast majority where the pattern is not clear. Anyway here is a shot at it. Back in ‘89 my broker then proposed I buy this stock or Magna. I chose Inmet, a very big mistake then and as in the cat and the hot stove, I have never looked at this stock again. Lets look at what is obvious; one would have had to be a complete moron not to have sold this stock at say $75 or above. When it was at $105 one would apply the “normal” 50/61% target (Gartman’s box) which brings you to about $45 or so. Ergo anyone owning this should be up, or wt worst, about flat right now. So what next, here is the chart in detail.

  Looking at this structure from $105 to $14 it clearly has had its own bear market, this is not to say that it cannot go lower but there is no compelling reason to assume that, so ignore the green and look at the purple. You are, right now hitting the trendline and you have completed what could be a 5-wave up, complete or not. Both suggest a drop back to $30/$25 before you move much higher, a tradable move. My guess is that we will go sideways for a while. Copper itself is already taking a break, see below (log-scale!). By the way, I do not for a moment believe in the “China” story. In Mongolia there is enough of this stuff for a few hundred years ( see IVN)