HPQ

HPQ

Hamilton

The nice thing about getting stopped out is that you can do the same foolish thing again without loosing too much;

HPQ Oct 2012

Between here and $11 this stock is a buy, if only for a nice dead cat bounce of 50+%. The 4th wave of previous degree is presumable at the $11 level, the stock is already trading with a $14 handle so there is about $4 room left to manoeuvre. At a glance you will notice that waves 5 and 1 of C are about the same size, a common feature. The 5th wave itself seems to be subdivided in 5 waves and therefore may be complete. In all events use a stop loss a few dollars below the buy level but not below $11.

Sony  (SNE)at about the same level may be a better bet. It is down a lot more if that is  criterion.

HPQ Hewlett Packard Co. and SNE, Sony

Hamilton

hpq aug 2012hpq aug 2012 s

We have tried this one before, only to get stopped out the same day. Things are not looking any better today. The counts in these charts are debatable but we assume, like all other tech. stocks HP had it’s top in 2000. From that point on one would expect an a-b-c correction that normally takes the stock down to the 4th wave of previous degree or 50/62 %. That had already been done in 2003. Given the 5-waves up from there we toyed with the idea that the stock might be in a whole new bull market, which it wasn’t.   Now it looks like the stock has had 5 waves down from the post great recession high of $55. However this is highly unlikely as waves 2 and 4 would be identical in structure; not impossible but unlikely. Therefore we give preference to the idea that we are only just about to complete wave 3 and still have 4 and 5 to go. Whatever the count we would wait for a reading closer to $10 before looking at the long side.

Sony, that other tech. wunder child, might be a better bet at $10+. It could have completed the sequence and it comes from a much higher level. The drop is more than 92%.

sne aug 2012

HPQ Hewlett Packard, update

Hamilton

hpq aug 19 2011

Yesterday HP traded in a wild $7 range. The take-over of a British software company was leaked a little early so the earnings were released a little early as well and the stock was halted for a little while. All things that just happen at critical points. Using as fine a pencil as I can , I have updated the chart from a few days ago. It shows that $27 is pretty well the sweet spot. The stock should not trade below $26 as that would negate the count ( overlap).

Nobody seems to understand what the company is up to. Some optimist are reminded of IBM some 10+ years ago when they got out of PC’s. Others believe the company lacks vision and is simple meandering to its ultimate demise. But, it is still the largest computer company and it trades at a P/E now below 7 (which makes you wonder why they are buying a company at a P/E of 30). Anyway this one is a buy at $27 with a stop at $26

P.S I see that the stock is down >$5 in after hours so this suggestion is not operative any more. In a manner of speaking you are stopped out before the fact. We will look at it again in a few days.

HPQ , Hewlett Packard co.

Hamilton

hpq

HPQ is out of phase with the rest of the world, not unlike AAPL and a few other stocks. It had its lows in 2003. Assuming  that it started a “new” life from that point , it a 5-wave sequence in early 2010. From there it is down about 62% and is a few dollars away from reaching a wave 4 of previous degree level and a point on the parallelogram that  could be the completion of wave 4 if the top (of wave 1) is not yet in. At roughly $27 this could be a great buy.   As the stock is at odds with the rest of the world, care should be taken to put in a stop-loss close to the entry point.