GWG

G WG, Goldcorp G Warrants.

Hamilton

See our Jan 28 blog on Goldcorp and the warrant. The argument then was that if you like a stock and expect it to go up, do not buy it, buy the warrant instead. The expectation was that Goldcorp would drop from $49 to $36. It did most of that but stopped at $39 and as a result the warrant never reached the anticipated low of $1. It made it to $1.61 and we missed buying it. Here is the chart;

GWG 2011

The expectation was that the warrant would triple. Despite not reaching the low of $1 it did triple and then some. The stock itself has gained a little more than 30% since then. The moral is that missing the boat may cost, even if it is only an opportunity!

G and G Warrants (G, G.wt.g)

Hamilton

A few weeks ago I suggested that ABX and Goldcorp were an outright sell given the pattern that they had then completed. The targets then (and now) were/are $36 and $35 resp. We are 3/4 along the way so what now? Here are the charts.

g jan 28 2011 G war 2011

To see the previous blog go to the index at the top of the website, or enter the code.! So we dropped from $49 to $39, pretty drastic already but not yet at the target (lets use $36 to have a little margin). Will it actually get there? Do not know for sure but it is the target so no harm in waiting for it. Note the RSI is already at a one year extreme and so is the MACD. But the count does not appear complete.

Looking at the warrants, I have no idea what the strike or expiration date is, but for these purposes that is not immediately relevant, it is clear that they dropped from $6 to $2 in the last leg down. That is more than 60% against 20% for the stock itself, or about 3x as fast.

Suppose the stock does go to $36, it would then probable rebound about half of what it lost, about $6 to $7 (to about $42/43). The warrant will drop to about $1 and rebound to $3, a much better return – with a lot less risk! Do sell when that happens as this warrant has an awful time-decay.