GPRO did not get enough attention. When it got to about $45 (where the 3 is) it could have completed an initial a-b-c down. However it continued lower and in March reached the level of wave 4 of previous degree AND about 62% retracement. The timing was also near perfect as the lock on the IPO stock was removed around the middle to end of February.  Clearly that was a significant low so a rebound was to be expected. We are getting exactly that. The other day there was even a nice gap. We are guessing that this is just wave a up of what will become, perhaps, an a-b-c rebound. The a should stop around the 200 day moving average, roughly $57 or so, then the b should erase about 1/2 of that, about $10 to $45 or so. Then the c can take it up to around $70. That would be the tradable move that we would wait for, provided things unfold as we expect.

     This stock must have read the book on EW as it is behaving accordingly. The ultimate low may be around the issue price of $24 or even lower but that is of no concern for the tradable leg we have in mind. This time we will keep an eye on it.

Gopro makes those little cameras that you wear when you engage in extreme sports. They are really neat and fun for things like sky diving, mountain climbing and other things that require your hands to be free. The camera remote controlled or has a fixed setting. It is essentially a video recorder.

The IPO was in June at $24, way too low but for that reason, oddly, a roaring success. If somehow you are well connected and got an allocation, you quickly quadrupled your money as the stock did its Mount Everest climb to near $100, with or without camera.

Due to the lack of a full cycle it is only possible to guess what the wave count should be. The last five dollar drop is blamed on Apple obtaining a patent that would allow it to enter this line of business. That does not explain the previous drop of about 45% and is probable another case of “after this, therefore because of this” logic. In any event the stock comes out of lock-up on Feb. 17 at which time all the lucky insiders get to take profit if they want to. That is still a month away. In the mean time things will get a lot clearer if overlap occurs. Any break of the present lows would negate the possibility that the recent 50% drop is a 4th wave and would allow for lower values. However if the low holds it is still possible that a 5th wave would take the stock to a new high. It would need to rise above $65 to give any confidence to this 5th wave scenario. For the moment the RSI and MACD seem to suggest at least some bounce.

Alternatively the move to $100 could be all of wave 1, the drop to $49 wave 2 and we are ready for take-off. At $200 to $500 maybe not.