On the left the Oct 25, 2011  blog, and on the right the Feb. 25, 2012 picture. The e-wave turned out to be a little on the short side, which happens when the stock is in a hurry to get going, and then the C-wave , which was expected to go to $50 or so to keep proportionality with the A-wave, actually went beyond that and got all the way to $30. Needless to say, if you were short you would have bought back for 60+% gain, if you are still short buy it back now. The stock could easily go lower but the most recent rebound, from $30 to $50 is a clear (maybe, maybe not) 5-wave structure, followed by an a-b-c retracement to $35 (about 3/4!). The c leg could start any moment and take the stock up about $20 from here. But the count is not perfectly clear so one should leave it alone or work with a tight stop at $29 or even higher.

Either one of these trajectories is possible, which essentially means that what you lack in certainty must be compensated for by discipline, hence the stop-loss.

Last time, see previous blog, I mentioned that we COULD be at a bottom of sorts but that the count then shown left a lot to desire, so it might well be wrong. It probable was , so here we are on our way to much lower levels. $30 or so may be the next target. Coming from a high of $320, that would constitute a 90% drop!, much of it courtesy government meddling.

In June we suggested a target price of $50 on the basis of the above triangle. We updated a few weeks ago with the message that we are not there yet. A few days ago we were there, here is the chart;

The low a few days ago was an accurate $50 , but more importantly it is possible to come up with a plausible 5-wave count for this c-wave, with the 5th extended. A rebound to $75 or so would be normal from here. Higher levels are possible, but, as there is no alternation between waves 2 and 4 there is a good possibility that the above count is simple wrong. This could be wave 4 of 3 leaving a lot to go down.

In our previous blog we advised that at the very least you stop yourself out at $100. If you did do that, you are now up 40%. This one is probable going further as there is no 5 wave sequence either from about $180 or from $140. This does not exclude a temporary bounce.