FSLR update and CSIQ

The usual then and now charts;

fslr apr 2012fslr b mar 6, 2014

We were a little early, but still it is nice to triple your money. Of course we would have done better going Canadian with CSIQ. We lacked the IQ but we do have an installation on our roof using the Canadian solar panels and it provides a 12 % , bond equivalent return. Here is the chart;

csiq b 6 mar 2014csiq s mar 6 2014

Canada’s on-off approach to solar, in particular the domestic content part, may have caused undue fluctuations in the acceptance of this “green” alternative. Another good example where government intervention destabilizes the markets.

FSLR update

The usual then (a year ago) and now charts;

fslr apr 2012fslr apr 10 2013

And the text, quote

Last time we were ambivalent about this stock. Now, that is after loosing $300 out of $320, the stock might actually be ripe for a decent , however not without a tight stop. Potentially a bounce could double the value of this stock and given the recent bad news this might just be the right time.

unquote.

Well we were about 40 days too early and $8 too high, but if you had followed this recommendation you would now have doubled your money! See detailed chart below;

fslr apr 10 2013 s

The stock hits the low at the beginning of June, which is also where the breakout is. Some may argue that a tight stop was recommended. True, but even so one could have re-entered the position a number of times and more than doubled your gain. Next stop is probable $50.

FSLR and GAM, Gamesa Corp Technological SA

We have been a little bearish on FSLR, First Solar, for the simple reason that we love this stuff but believe that any government involvement kills the whole thing. In the US homeownership was the politically correct story of the day, that is how Fannie May became the largest and most incompetent dealer in derivatives, never mind that most people there knew absolutely nothing about them nor did they need to know if they had stuck to their knitting. America claims to be the land of the free, and with that, raw capitalism. But any and every time something goes awry it reverts back to  a centrally , or dirigistic  type of economy. The Fed is the prime example of constant meddling but it also happens in that new wonder of the world, non conventional energy. From China to the US, from Romania to Hungary, from Denmark to Iceland etc.etc. government subsidies have been available at embarrassingly high levels, often well over 10x what the free market would have dictated. Here is what happens when they come to their senses and abruptly pull the plug;

fslr may 2012gam 2012

Spain has a problem with empty homes, it also has a problem with renewable energy policies, all this courtesy the government. First they discovery new sliced bread, subsidizes you to the tune of 10x + above the going market rates, completely ignoring how this might fit in the existing infrastructure and then reverse policy. One day the same will happen with interest rates!(see previous blogs on FSLR). Canada is doing exactly the same thing. Not knowing the basic difference between base-load and whatever else happens to be available, our politicians are embarrassed to have to explain why it is that we pay Americans to use our power, an economic concept that does not come across very readily. Never mind the non- tendered deal with Samsung.

FSLR , First Solar

fslr apr 2012 

See also our previous blogs. Last time we were ambivalent about this stock. Now, that is after loosing $300 out of $320, the stock might actually be ripe for a decent , however not without a tight stop. Potentially a bounce could double the value of this stock and given the recent bad news this might just be the right time.