FAZ, Dirextion Daily Financial Bear 3X (by special request)

faz sept 23 2011

Looks good, see previous blog. But don’t forget Mark Twain’s words of wisdom – there are two times in a man’s life when he should not gamble, when he has the money and when he doesn’t- or something to that effect.

FAZ , Direxion Financial Bear 3x

FAZ aug b 2011 FAZ aug 2011

By special request. This is for pros only, or at least those that are not faint of heart. This one has come down from such highs that the recent lows are almost certainly a low, implying that the next big move is up(this is the inverse of the financials!). Overlap in EW is not acceptable, but this thing is leveraged 3x and consequently the swings are much wider. With that caveat this, IMO, is the proper count. Given that wave 5 down was a wedge, it should be retraced completely. That would take you to 95 for wave 1. Short-term we are in 4th wave, that seems to be complete already but could develop into a triangle as well. This would take more time but should not lead to a lower low than the most recent one.

FAZ, 3x leveraged financial bear.

FAZ

This chart is on a log-scale. The question is, is this a buy? Well the simple answer is that it is definitely not a sell, after all if something comes down from 2000 and gets close to 11 or so , only a madman would sell it short. So , if that is the case is it a buy? Probably if you are patient. As this is 3x leveraged it is not even clear that EW rules should apply but , putting that aside this is like a lottery ticket if you believe the financial system is soon to implode, one way or another. The count , with a little imagination, would be a big a-b-c down from the top and recently a first and second wave to start the impulse wave up. The potential is enormous as the initial target would be around 50, conservatively speaking! Good luck, use only money that you can afford to lose.