F Update, April 28

F April 28

Here is an update on Ford. This is a schematic picture how Ford may move up over the next  few months. Obviously I have no illusions that it will follow the script precisely, nevertheless if the underlying proposition is ,more or less, correct this what one might expect. RSI and MACD are already high but may stay after a pause. The gap is often in the middle which points towards the $9.75 POTENTIAL target. Presently there are 7 discernable waves within wave 3, this cannot be the end of the move. Every bull wave must have 5 + (a multiple of 4) so the next stopping point should call for at least 2 more legs before 3 is done and then there still is 4 and 5 to go. Of course we have already done a 30% gain (just for the record). Below is the “big” picture.

F April 28. 2png

F April 21

China has overtaken the US in car production, after about 20 years whereas cars have existed for about 100 years in the States. Amazing how fast things happen. But Goldman Sachs has put the company on it’s “conviction” list . Perhaps we should have more conviction in what the E-wave signature of the stock is telling us. Here are the charts again.

F April 21

Nice 5 down to slightly below 4th of previous degree (that is the bump on the way up!

F april 21 2

Good luck and try not to think!

F Ford April 6

F April 4

I have been dead wrong on this one, premature would be a better word, having predicted a rise to the top of this pattern ( around $9.50) many months ago (prior to the existence of this website). This is and was , in my opinion , an expanding diagonal triangle. They occur when the market has gone too far too fast and normally (read always) retrace right back to the top – and do so quite violently.  My error was in thinking the pattern was complete when it was not. The mistake is not that extraordinary considering that the 5th wave in this pattern frequently falls short of the trend line, occasionally breaching it.

In the mean time these guys have 23 bln in cash, are buying their debt back at 30cents on the dollar and are not beholding to the government. Perhaps they will be the only one of the three standing when all this is over, imagine the upside potential! Below is the model.

diagonal april 6