See no hands, no EW either. Just plain luck hitting the top within weeks and now we are down about 25%. A buying opportunity? Definitely not, not untill you get into the regression-to-the-mean zone, the pinkish bar, at about $45. That is another 50% drop. At least you do not own Viacom (VIAB), that did this in a mere 5 days starting from two thirds as high.

Three years ago, almost to the day and at about $60, there were good reasons to assume that a top was in. Not so as we were only halfway. We cannot now label this stock chart in any credible way and therefore just leave you with the picture. After all a picture is worth a thousand words.

Disney made new highs the other day, just above $50. In our view this completes the wedge and reaches the upper parallel boundary. Time to sell. See previous blog as well.

Look at our 2 previous blogs. Some points were dead on, some were dead wrong. At $43/45 it looked like the stock had peaked and it immediately dropped about $15 or so. We think the count we had then was simple wrong. Given the overlaps  it now makes the most sense to label the entire move from the 2003 as a “diagonal”, that is a wedge. This stock made a new high yesterday and is now on or above the top trend-line of this wedge. Slight “throw-overs” are very common. If this count is correct, the stock should start dropping very soon and should do so towards the base of this wedge structure which is around $13. Other possible counts, a 4-5,4-5 at the end or a large B-wave all have targets at least to $20. We’ll see.