The DAX is by far the “cleanest†chart of the lot. A further rise to 5250 or another 400 points or so cannot be dismissed but even so the index already made a high in terms of RSI, MACD, and has hit the par. line at 4650 and gone through. Risk /reward does not favour the upside.
Not to belabor the point but here are the comparable charts for the DAX and the AEX. The DAX is realy nice in that the B-leg of the flat is very very clearly a B-leg, in which the b also subdivides as it should. No further comment.
Time to diversify??
They are not all entirely comparable but they all carry the same message. We are at a very important juncture and for that reason it is prudent to step aside. Unlike most brokers I believe that there is a red light ,a green light and an amber (or yellow ) light. The biggest mistake made is that of inaction! The market has been very bullish, up 24% or so and in some individual cases a lot more so I think this could be the halfway point and we take away a good part of the gains. Time will tell but the pattern, a flat wave (4?) occurs in all markets and should be followed by a dive, perhaps to new lows but we will see how it unfolds if it does. The bull case could just continue but in light of the evidence this is an amber light. Here are the charts.
Remember, you can click on them to enlarge, also you can move them across your screen so you have two or more side by side.
Here we have the whole lot. From TSE to S&P to Nasdaq and then overseas to DAX and Nikkei. All charts are similar but as you go down the list the idea of a triangle moves from a perfect fit to less likely in the case of the Nikkei. Anyway after yesterday it is clear that we are not going to get that little leg down that would make it conclusive. Not that surprising seeing that just about everything looks like a buy. RY in the meantime is up almost $12 from the low just under $26, all of this in two weeks.
On the TSE we are entering a corrective up wave that typically retraces at least 38% (10400), often 50% (11250) and or 68% (12135). That does not mean that we might not first get a little pull back but for the time being one should try to be long. Some segments of the market are already up 20% or so, whereas others have not budged that much (Sherritt f.i.). By the way, BBD.B made the 30% sell point and so did BAC.