The then and now charts. Time to move on.

The usual then, Jan 22, and now charts.

Chevron was always a little ahead of Shell and has a slightly different pattern, perhaps. But from an EW point of view this one is fairly simple. From the Aug. lows there was an initial 5-wave correction which then has to be a first leg of a 5-3-5 A-B-C. Sofar that is exactly what we are getting. There is a whole cluster of “logical” targets, the B wave level (in purple), the 61.8% retracement level and equality between C and A all around 104/105. You are already up about 26% but now it is worth holding out for more.

This has been a great stock to analyse.  It must have read the script. We even got the top right all though we were late to recognize that, see our blog a year earlier, Feb. 22 2014;

Then, 30th of April, 2015, and now charts as usual;

The prediction then and the result now, down some $17 in just two months all based on one little c-wave wedge. The “ideal” level as a first target might actually be more like $85 or so but even so it is probable better to step aside here (see also RDS.B)

Last year August, see previous blogs, we noticed the absolute precise symmetry in this stock’s legs, presumably waves 3 and 5. A good time, almost always, to get out, and it was this time as well as the stock lost about $35 or 30% in a very short time. Given the stock’s rise in the previous years this is hardly a serious correction, certainly not one that reflects the 50 to 60 percent drop in oil itself. So, like with Royal Dutch which, by the way, is of equal cap. size without BG included, but earns a much higher dividend, it looks like the next move might be down again.

The short term chart has a count that could accommodate that, it is not the only one, and the very clear wedge that it now sports going right into the 200 day moving average adds weight to this view.