From the past, Feb. 2013 we repeat the entire blog;

At the time we figured a target of about $10.50 would be reasonable. Today we got to within 20 cents of that but it took a lot longer than we expected. In any event , at that time, we brought up the distinct possibility of “stranded costs”. For those of you who do not know what that is, I suggest you look at your Hydro bill. Euphemistically they refer to the same thing as “legacy costs”, which is to say that they screwed up but still get to charge you. COS is not a government entity with the monopoly privileges attached, instead shareholders pay. And pay they will as this has further to go.

In the big picture – this is a semi-log chart -  we are in wave 3 of C, normally the most powerful part. 3 can go lower as  if we use the gap in the middle approach it would target about $7. From that point on we would still need 4 and 5 of C to complete the whole thing. Or alternatively, another b and c if we are in fact looking at a double zig-zag. The realities of being a marginal producer in an environment where demand is lagging and supply has increased dramatically are beginning to come home to roost.

The usual then, Febr. 2013, and now charts;

There is no reason to change the outlook from five months ago, so far so good. This still may not be the correct interpretation but for the moment we will work with it. As mentioned ad nauseum triangles occur only in 4th or B-wave positions. Given the size relative to the initial drop a B-wave makes most sense. Again, if correct, it projects to about $13 sometime around February 2014. A rise above the minor c wave within the triangle would negate this outlook.

Then, Feb.5 ,2013 and now charts;

At the time, Feb. 2013 we called the triangle (wave B in an A-B-C) structure “plausible”. So far at least, that is exactly what we got so the pattern has become more plausible. It can still go slightly higher but after that you run the risk that this scenario is, in fact, the correct one. Assuming a proportionate drop in the C and A legs (about 50%), a target in the vicinity of $10.50 or so is realistic. You do not have to sell, a tight stop-loss would do equally well! The possibility of “stranded costs” ,a concept raised in this blog quite some time ago , is also becoming a more distinct reality. Unlike Ontario Hydro they will not be able to ding you the customer for that.

Just a plausible possibility!